ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[caneman]

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.

Any chance of that re-forming under the deepest convection? It would seem that would give it the best chance.

[Aric Dunn]

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.

[img]http://imageshack.us/a/img69/8325/qfw4.jpg[/mg]

Any chance of that re-forming under the deepest convection? It would seem that would give it the best chance.

if it could do that yeah.. Does not seem very likely at this point.

[caneman]

Hi Robbielyn.

I say Cedar Key not just based on the front. Having lived here far too long, I'm basing it as well on climatology. Further, look as which way the cloud deck is expanding on W.V. Seen many setups like this this time of year. I may be wrong, if so, will eat crow.

[tolakram]

Stop with the model war discussions please. There have been studies that show the strength and weaknesses of the models, their performance when a storm exists, their performance before a storm exists, etc. Arguing about which computer program won this race is not productive. Thanks.

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

latest

[tolakram]

It appears right now that shear will be an issue.

[cycloneye]

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

[meriland23]

This really bumped up pretty quick. I mean, TS is anything between 39-73 mph.. just the thought that it reached 60 mph before it reached TS status leads me to believe this is one to definitely take seriously since it is so rapid. Was it below 39 mph last NHC update a few hours ago?

[jaguarjace]

[xironman]

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.

Any chance of that re-forming under the deepest convection? It would seem that would give it the best chance.

I remember AFM saying that it wasn't so much as a reformation but sometimes the LLC would migrate under the convection just due to the atmospheric dynamics.

[robbielyn]

Hi Robbielyn.

I say Cedar Key not just based on the front. Having lived here far too long, I'm basing it as well on climatology. Further, look as which way the cloud deck is expanding on W.V. Seen many setups like this this time of year. I may be wrong, if so, will eat crow.

This year climatology has been thrown out the window. Nothing that should be happening has happened. Climatalogy as we know it doesnt exist anymore. with all the dry air, with fronts not acting right weather is all messed up and upside down so its almost anything goes. But hey since I just said that, I guess it could possibly. Guess its a wait and see game which is what makes it so fun to track.

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://imageshack.us/a/img69/8325/qfw4.jpg[/ig]

Any chance of that re-forming under the deepest convection? It would seem that would give it the best chance.

I remember AFM saying that it wasn't so much as a reformation but sometimes the LLC would migrate under the convection just due to the atmospheric dynamics.

exactly

[caneman]

Hi Robbielyn.

I say Cedar Key not just based on the front. Having lived here far too long, I'm basing it as well on climatology. Further, look as which way the cloud deck is expanding on W.V. Seen many setups like this this time of year. I may be wrong, if so, will eat crow.

This year climatology has been thrown out the window. Nothing that should be happening has happened. Climatalogy as we know it doesnt exist anymore. with all the dry air, with fronts not acting right weather is all messed up and upside down so its almost anything goes. But hey since I just said that, I guess it could possibly. Guess its a wait and see game which is what makes it so fun to track.

I see it is moving at 13 mph. Looks like it is moving too fast for any kind of a hook. That is a lot of dry air and shear up in the Northern GOM so there may not be much left when it gets up there.

[petit_bois]

Fire in the Hole! Heads up GOM'ers!
NHS shows possible hurricane!
and oh yeah... Surf's Up!

[Aric Dunn]

from NHC

"NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. "

[meriland23]

from NHC

"NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. "

Wonder if Karen would choose heads or tails. So far she is going NNW

[meriland23]

Hi Robbielyn.

I say Cedar Key not just based on the front. Having lived here far too long, I'm basing it as well on climatology. Further, look as which way the cloud deck is expanding on W.V. Seen many setups like this this time of year. I may be wrong, if so, will eat crow.

This year climatology has been thrown out the window. Nothing that should be happening has happened. Climatalogy as we know it doesnt exist anymore. with all the dry air, with fronts not acting right weather is all messed up and upside down so its almost anything goes. But hey since I just said that, I guess it could possibly. Guess its a wait and see game which is what makes it so fun to track.

I see it is moving at 13 mph. Looks like it is moving too fast for any kind of a hook. That is a lot of dry air and shear up in the Northern GOM so there may not be much left when it gets up there.

13 mph is not fast...

[jlauderdal]

good setup over dade county today for more heavy rain, up to 9 inches yesterday in the kendall area...effects of karen to be sure...next week as it exits should get southerly flow over florida for more rain

[jlauderdal]

good setup over dade county today for more heavy rain, up to 9 inches yesterday in the kendall area...effects of karen to be sure...next week as it exits should get southerly flow over florida for more rain

0650 AM HEAVY RAIN PINECREST 25.66N 80.29W
10/03/2013 M6.73 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 6.73 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAD OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. STREETS WERE
FLOODED ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE USE OF SMALL WATERCRAFT.

[caneman]

I see it is moving at 13 mph. Looks like it is moving too fast for any kind of a hook. That is a lot of dry air and shear up in the Northern GOM so there may not be much left when it gets up there.[/quote]

13 mph is not fast...[/quote]

Fast in the sense that the front won't likely catch it in time for a hook.

[Aric Dunn]

The last pass by recon.. due west movement.. though likely a formative wobble..