ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[BUCMAN48]

Aric,

What if anything would move it futher east? Is that trough still in play.

[caneman]

If this storm is going to be anything significant the LLC will need to migrate East under the deep convection IMHO.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

What if anything would move it futher east? Is that trough still in play.

yep, going to turn it..

[chaser1]

good setup over dade county today for more heavy rain, up to 9 inches yesterday in the kendall area...effects of karen to be sure...next week as it exits should get southerly flow over florida for more rain

0650 AM HEAVY RAIN PINECREST 25.66N 80.29W
10/03/2013 M6.73 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 6.73 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAD OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. STREETS WERE
FLOODED ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE USE OF SMALL WATERCRAFT.

Yep, "The Falls" area (approx. Galloway Road & U.S. 1) had many reports of water entering buildings; amazing thing is that I'm now out in West Kendall, and though we did have consistant rain, saw no street flooding in my area. Will have to take a 15 minute drive and go down there to take a better look around.

I'm thinking that Karen's mid levels will continue to feel a tug more to the right, which will in turn cause a lot more rain for the state (and perhaps us down here too in South Fla.). This though might spell issues for Karen if the low level center is going to try and insist on a more NW motion. Gonna be hard for itself to keep generating convection close to the center with time unless the system can maintain vertical integrity.

[jhpigott]

The last pass by recon.. due west movement.. though likely a formative wobble..

And the heaviest convection drifting NE. Not good for development.

[jlauderdal]

good setup over dade county today for more heavy rain, up to 9 inches yesterday in the kendall area...effects of karen to be sure...next week as it exits should get southerly flow over florida for more rain

0650 AM HEAVY RAIN PINECREST 25.66N 80.29W
10/03/2013 M6.73 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 6.73 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAD OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. STREETS WERE
FLOODED ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE USE OF SMALL WATERCRAFT.

Yep, "The Falls" area (approx. Galloway Road & U.S. 1) had many reports of water entering buildings; amazing thing is that I'm now out in West Kendall, and though we did have consistant rain, saw no street flooding in my area. Will have to take a 15 minute drive and go down there to take a better look around.

I'm thinking that Karen's mid levels will continue to feel a tug more to the right, which will in turn cause a lot more rain for the state (and perhaps us down here too in South Fla.). This though might spell issues for Karen if the low level center is going to try and insist on a more NW motion. Gonna be hard for itself to keep generating convection close to the center with time unless the system can maintain vertical integrity.

I think you need to get farther east but you know south florida, one day 9 inches of rain and the next no sign there was ever an event

[northjaxpro]

Karen will become a very lopsided system with the majority of the convection and heaviest squall dipacled well to the east of the COC. Dry air is alrady impating the sytem from the northwest and southwesterly upper level wind shear wil increase beginning on Friday.

[northjaxpro]

Karen will become a very lopsided system with the majority of the convection and heaviest squall displaced well to the east of the COC. Dry air is alrady impating the sytem from the northwest and southwesterly upper level wind shear wil increase beginning on Friday.

[Time_Zone]

I'm not really seeing any dry air causing a problem right now.

Shear seems to be giving it more trouble imo

[robbielyn]

it has a nice rounded shape to it. and the center isn't off the yucatan yet so give it a chance. its looking good.

[chaser1]

If this storm is going to be anything significant the LLC will need to migrate East under the deep convection IMHO.

Yep, could'nt agree more. One of two things will need to happen. Either the center will have to have new convection wrap around itself thus better insulating it from increasing shear with the increased latitude & longitude, or it must become more aligned with the mid level center which I'd be inclined to think wants to move in a more poleward motion (north). I don't see the first option being particularly realistic given that is has had this much difficulty thus far in co-locating itself within and under the deeper convection consistently to its north and east. Expecting additional convection to fire in the face of increasing shear (and dry air?) and for that convection to be maintained just seems so unrealistic.

The low level center must be able to keep up with the mid level in order to maintain and increase intensity.

[northjaxpro]

It is possble the anticyclone hovering over Karen may continue to move north in tantum with Karen. If this happns, the cyclone may be able to fend off a good bit of the dry air, like the GFS is hinting at this storm doing.

[jhpigott]

Despite the waning convection, recon still finding some strong winds - 60 knots flight; 59 SFMR

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, I wasn't expecting to wake up to a hurricane watch this morning. Expecting rain to start this afternoon according to local mets. Guess we will spend the day picking up and putting away objects outside that can be blown around. Our power goes out here during thunderstorms..so thats hopefully the worst that will happen..everybody in the watch area make sure you have plenty of batteries and candles.

[Macrocane]

Karen will struggle to become a hurricane for sure, the center is becoming more exposed and convection is weakening, I'm not saying it could not refire and find a small spot of lower wind shear but the chances are low IMO. This is not an official forecast.

[stormy70]

I am over in Alabama near Gulf Shores along Mobile Bay. Hurricane Watch here....Watching this storm closely because it is my daughter's first homecoming this weekend. Keep bringing the updates here. Is there a way for a thread to be open for us in the area can talk to other people in the area where the storm could affect one another without having to post on this thread since it is for the storm itself? I know in the past they have.

[MGC]

Yea SunnyThoughts, nothing like waking up under a hurricane watch. Still hope that the dry air and some shear keep Karen in check. Time to activate the hurricane plan, after of course a couple of cups of coffee.......MGC

[fsusurfer]

Destin Seafood Festival canceled... bummer for us!

[Red eye]

Hello, first time poster from Crowley, LA. Enjoy the board and stay glued to it during Hurricane season.

I was wondering what some of the more experienced posters on the board would think of the likelihood of Karen shifting to the Western most side of the cone? What would cause Karen to take a more western path? Is this plausible?

Kudos granola snacks to the guy/girl that had the dream about the K Storm.

[robbielyn]

llc off coast now. she is looking good.