ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

after that wobble to the west earlier.. looks due north the last couple frames of the near exposed llc

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[stephen23]

This front that everyone is talking about my local pro mets are saying it wont be over my area till late friday night into saturday morning. I live in north texas not far from the red river and tx/ok border. how far away does a front have to be before it would start to affect karen?

Local mets saying it won't be over DFW area until around 10 a.m. SAT morning

[LaBreeze]

Could it be that Karen may have ingested some dry air some time over past few hours? It looks like some dry air has just been expelled to the east of what was the large convection area from IR sat image. The clouds being blown away from the storm. Now kind of appears like envelope is starting to expand to the west of storm.

Envelope of what? An envelope of dry air? Just asking because I really don't know.

[chaser1]

Agreed Aric….The SW orientation of the Shear could keep this on more of a northerly path into the GOM and keep it closer to the GFS track and have a 55-65kt storm at landfall. I think the euro needs to be given less weight right now because its weaker solution is starting to loose traction. The SW shear *could* actually help keep it vented if its orientated right.

I can see how the EURO could actually play out. Like all of us switching from satellite, back to S2K discussions, to updating models & maps, and then back to satellite loops again....., its plainly visible that the waning (warming) convection is also appearing to want to move in a more Northeast direction, while the low level center has its own ideas, and is seemingly moving between NW & NNW. That convection on the eastern semi-circle will either simply "blow off" and then continue to warm in the process, with newer convection to fire closer to the center, or this existing convection will wrap itself around the COC. If the shear and/or low level center impact greater distance from the mid level center OR even in its present state, if Karen cannot wrap newly forming convection to its north and west....than ultimately at some point there could simply be a low level center insistent to want a taste of Cajun food, and simply continue to do so, weakening as it goes given the lost mid & upper level structure & increased shear. There just wouldn't seem to be much left of it even if a faster forward motion did beat out the front.

So here, given that set of circumstances, the EURO would have been correct in forecasting a weak depression, low, or open wave to move there. One could then claim that the EURO never really captured the evolution of the event to lead to that end, but the model is not designed to do that.

If you asked me last night, I would have disagreed with that solution given the overall appearance and with the LLC seemingly being tucked within and under the bursting convection. This a.m., its plainly evident to me though that the LLC just has its own agenda. I had thought last night that it was nearing the end of its window of opportunity regarding getting itself vertically stacked, and in doing so perhaps a more northward motion (or more "eastward solution per the GFS) would have better insulated the center and some strengthening would perhaps continue. That is why NHC is stating that an eastern solution might bode for a bigger storm (or hurricane) threat, because it would 1) simply be easier for the center to remain co-located with the overall circulation and 2) because moving more northward (than NW'ward) would impact less shear and easier allow itself for new convection to occur and remain embedded within (or close to) it.

Regardless "which wins", that's irrelevant. What is relevant, is whether Karen can maintain healthy convection and able to maintain fairly vertical or is its own diminishing symmetry an obvious sign of weakening.

[cycloneye]

Web Cam in Cozumel.

[tailgater]

Agreed Aric….The SW orientation of the Shear could keep this on more of a northerly path into the GOM and keep it closer to the GFS track and have a 55-65kt storm at landfall. I think the euro needs to be given less weight right now because its weaker solution is starting to loose traction. The SW shear *could* actually help keep it vented if its orientated right.

I can see how the EURO could actually play out. Like all of us switching from satellite, back to S2K discussions, to updating models & maps, and then back to satellite loops again....., its plainly visible that the waning (warming) convection is also appearing to want to move in a more Northeast direction, while the low level center has its own ideas, and is seemingly moving between NW & NNW. That convection on the eastern semi-circle will either simply "blow off" and then continue to warm in the process, with newer convection to fire closer to the center, or this existing convection will wrap itself around the COC. If the shear and/or low level center impact greater distance from the mid level center OR even in its present state, if Karen cannot wrap newly forming convection to its north and west....than ultimately at some point there could simply be a low level center insistent to want a taste of Cajun food, and simply continue to do so, weakening as it goes given the lost mid & upper level structure & increased shear. There just wouldn't seem to be much left of it even if a faster forward motion did beat out the front.

So here, given that set of circumstances, the EURO would have been correct in forecasting a weak depression, low, or open wave to move there. One could then claim that the EURO never really captured the evolution of the event to lead to that end, but the model is not designed to do that. to move with the lower level flow.

If you asked me last night, I would have disagreed with that solution given the overall appearance and with the LLC seemingly being tucked within and under the bursting convection. This a.m., its plainly evident to me though that the LLC just has its own agenda. I had thought last night that it was nearing the end of its window of opportunity regarding getting itself vertically stacked, and in doing so perhaps a more northward motion (or more "eastward solution per the GFS) would have better insulated the center and some strengthening would perhaps continue. That is why NHC is stating that an eastern solution might bode for a bigger storm (or hurricane) threat, because it would 1) simply be easier for the center to remain co-located with the overall circulation and 2) because moving more northward (than NW'ward) would impact less shear and easier allow itself for new convection to occur and remain embedded within (or close to) it.

Regardless "which wins", that's irrelevant. What is relevant, is whether Karen can maintain healthy convection and able to maintain fairly vertical or is its own diminishing symmetry an obvious sign of weakening.

TPW seems to want to conitue NW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[Dean4Storms]

This will refire convection near the center once again as the day wears on. Shear is expected to be only marginal so we are likely to see this back and forth with the convective process over and over. The only time the shear is expected to really begin to tear this apart is when it gets very close to the gulf coast as the front gets into the western Gulf late Saturday.

[Aric Dunn]

fully exposed llc but moving due north..


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[northtxboy]

This front that everyone is talking about my local pro mets are saying it wont be over my area till late friday night into saturday morning. I live in north texas not far from the red river and tx/ok border. how far away does a front have to be before it would start to affect karen?

Local mets saying it won't be over DFW area until around 10 a.m. SAT morning

thats why i am wondering how far away a front has to be to affect karen. from windom or dfw to la or florida is along ways off. isnt karen supposed to make lanfall on saturday? i just dont see now how this front can affect karen being so far away. and the front is supposed to make this shear that karen runs into right?

[chaser1]

Could it be that Karen may have ingested some dry air some time over past few hours? It looks like some dry air has just been expelled to the east of what was the large convection area from IR sat image. The clouds being blown away from the storm. Now kind of appears like envelope is starting to expand to the west of storm.

Envelope of what? An envelope of dry air? Just asking because I really don't know.

Here's what I am seeing. The part of the "envelope" that one could say appears to possibly be expanding might certainly include the beautiful outflow on the storm's east side. It also looks to me that the upper anticyclone may be shifting a bit north of the storm, or this appearance could simply be an illusion due to the northward forward motion of the upper clouds tops and/or mid level features. What we are looking at however on Karen's west side is the fairly impressive low level circulation. Only problem is this low level circulation appears to me to be moving in an overall WNW motion. So where this could "visually" be perceived as "expanding westward", should be more thought of seeing someone's legs walking one way, while their upper torso (heart & brain included) are going the other. A better example of an expanding envelope might be where the often larger expanding upper level (and then mid levels below) clouds are generally growing in size, but typically this happens with good core symmetry of the storm.

Needless to say, the eventual outcome is severe blood-loss, followed by dismemberment LOL.

[xironman]

The LLC is fully exposed, but let's face it the system is pulling air in off the Yucatan right now. Give time to put some water between it and the landmass before it can really regenerate.

[stormlover2013]

just going to be a rain maker!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

just going to be a rain maker!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why do you say that? Please back up your comments with some kind of analysis AND the disclaimer (which I added) if you are making a prediction.

[MGC]

Dry air and shear are starting to interact with Karen. Center is currently exposed with all the deep convection displaced to the east of the cyclone. Earlier I was thinking the GFS had the right solution but backing off if Karen don't redevelop more convection near the center...Euro might be right with a shallower system......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and no a official forecast.

[chaser1]

Got to admit, at least the center is entirely identifiable and easy to follow at the moment. There's not quite enough frames for me to be sure of the most recent motion, but my guess would be NW to NNW. It could very well develop new convection and eventually be wrapped within it, but this storm has yet to effectively have any persistant convection (let along banding) on its western flank. Until this happens, I'd maybe quantify its condition as "maintaining" at best, but certainly not getting stronger.

Geez, any other year i'd fully expect continued development, but this seems to be a year where the least perfect of conditions are all that are necessary to compromise a storm sustaining itself or further intensifying.

[Lane]

Can someone post the current shear forecast?

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2013275go.jpg
Maybe the Water isn't quite as warm as usual either in certain spots?

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS maybe a tad stronger and into FL Panhandle near Panama City. Not backing off!

[tropicwatch]

Center is becoming more noticeable on satellite.

[CrazyC83]

Looks somewhat like Andrea in a sense...