ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#761 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Analyzed shear has dropped a great deal from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=


noticed that.. been discussion amongst a few of us that the trough may amplify a bit more and upper level wind direction may change and become more in the direction of forward motion making it a little more favorable.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:12 pm

:uarrow: In that shear tenancy the storm is almost directly over the 0 (no change) black line. The negative 5 dashed line is south of the Yucatan.
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#763 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:13 pm

Convection continues to weaken, and while it may only be temporary, I fully expect the plane to find a somewhat weaker system, probably around 60 mph. No wrapping of convection at all at this point.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby N2Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:16 pm

ROCK wrote:maybe the EURO, CMC, NAM, NAVGEM were on to something regarding intensity.... :D



Yeah...that might be why the NHC nudged their Track a little to the West. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this trend continue and see them extend their Hurr Watches a little farther to the West. Maybe the GFS will eventually start to come around and quit being so obstinate...
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#765 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 pm

xironman wrote::uarrow: In that shear tenancy the storm is almost directly over the 0 (no change) black line. The negative 5 dashed line is south of the Yucatan.


Keep in mind the lines are just the tendency of change (up or down) while the color is the actual shear. The shear ahead of the storm has dropped.

Real shear map is here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
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#766 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:20 pm

I still see the NW/NNW movement.
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#767 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:23 pm

I see Canadian still with Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#768 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:23 pm

Looks like it is trying to fire some convection again. For what it is worth. GFS did show Karen's 10m winds decreasing for about the next 12 hours then gradually increasing up until landfall. Don't know if that means anything or not
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#769 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:32 pm

HurriGuy wrote:I still see the NW/NNW movement.

I see it stairstepping nnw.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#770 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:37 pm

Yeah, I went to that map at 9z and the 20kt shear line is about maybe 75 miles north of were it was then. Those analyzed shear maps are kind of dodgy anyways, I have seen where they say little shear yet the cirrus is flying.
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#771 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:37 pm

Its clearly having problems. thats not a convective pattern that you looked for if you are about to see a large increase in convection...
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#772 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:44 pm

Unless it starts to build deep convection over the center its not likely to take a more easterly path.. the longer it lacks convection near the center the more likely it makes it farther west
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#773 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:55 pm

mid level dry air causing it aric?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#774 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:00 pm

Cantore via Twitter:

"Decent shear already in place should keep "weather" east of center, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean we can't get surge flooding in Mobile, MS & LA"
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#775 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:03 pm

looks to me euro could be right!!
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#776 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:06 pm

Appears to be moving almost due north.

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#777 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:08 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:looks to me euro could be right!!

What is euro saying?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#778 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:09 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Appears to be moving almost due north.

http://tropicwatch.info/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Look again going nw now
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#779 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:15 pm

More models are going with the Louisiana solution, with the CMC even going as far as SW Louisiana.

Should be interesting.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#780 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:15 pm

12z EURO further east
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