ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Well, regardless of looks the plane is in the system and the first pressure reading is 1001MB, so we can watch as this mission progresses to see if that goes up or down.

[Steve]

>>Karen is looking terrible this afternoon....

Come on man. It's not looking terrible whatsoever. It looks exactly like a low to mid-grade tropical storm in the current environment - just as it probably should. It simply "is." It's an area of surface low pressure that's spinning and producing squalls and convection. Not to be on a high horse or anything, but the overuse of the word "terrible" when describing a tropical system of any/every type and character on this and other forums is kind of weak. People say it all the time, but tropical systems are part and parcel (e.g. products) of their respective weather patterns and conditions. If someone said it looks "terrible compared to Camille" or "terrible as compared to Wilma", okay fine. But none of those three are the same animal. You get what you get.

But it does not look terrible. It looks like it's supposed to.

[Frank P]

You can see the developing convection trying to wrap around the center... still looks to be moving off to the NW / NNW... my opinion only..

[Hammy]

>>Karen is looking terrible this afternoon....

Come on man. It's not looking terrible whatsoever. It looks exactly like a low to mid-grade tropical storm in the current environment - just as it probably should. It simply "is." It's an area of surface low pressure that's spinning and producing squalls and convection. Not to be on a high horse or anything, but the overuse of the word "terrible" when describing a tropical system of any/every type and character on this and other forums is kind of weak. People say it all the time, but tropical systems are part and parcel (e.g. products) of their respective weather patterns and conditions. If someone said it looks "terrible compared to Camille" or "terrible as compared to Wilma", okay fine. But none of those three are the same animal. You get what you get.

But it does not look terrible. It looks like it's supposed to.

I'm using "terrible" in comparison to what it looked like earlier, and in comparison with what a system that is forecast to intensify would look like. The convective pattern as well as upper air support appears to be completely falling apart at the moment, continuing the model trend of over-intensifying everything. And it is indeed weakening, quite significantly considering the span of time from this morning, if the latest winds are any indication, as recon is only finding 45 mph so far, and probably won't find any higher than 50mph in the NE quad.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Is that wave of cloud moving north from the LLC a sign of Strengthening?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

To help, Ive circled waht I see with a black line.

[Steve]

>>I'm using "terrible" in comparison to what it looked like earlier, and in comparison with what a system that is forecast to intensify would look like. The convective pattern as well as upper air support appears to be completely falling apart at the moment, continuing the model trend of over-intensifying everything. And it is indeed weakening, quite significantly considering the span of time from this morning, if the latest winds are any indication, as recon is only finding 45 mph so far, and probably won't find any higher than 50mph in the NE quad.

I gotcha. I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. I was kind of surprised that the NHC makes it a Cat 1 for a time over the Gulf. I also thought maybe it had peaked earlier. But then Recon found 1001mb pressure, which is as low as I've seen with it so far. I'm not thinking it gets into the 980s or anything, but Aric noted it dropped 3mb from earlier. So if the trend is falling pressure, we're looking at a deepening system even if the winds lag or never actually catch up (as they sometimes don't). Looks better on visible than IR where the cloudtops have been warming most of the day (as often happens in daytime).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

if that little bit of convection is the beginning of a convective period then it might hold on and deepen

[Aric Dunn]

Is that wave of cloud moving north from the LLC a sign of Strengthening?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

To help, Ive circled waht I see with a black line.

[img]http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/412/cguf.png[/ig]

No that is a ouflow boundry cause by the collapse of the convection in the outer band.. it collapsed due to possible mid level dry air or just getting to far away from the circ you see it all the time either one.. but being that there is dry air around not alot more in the upper levels but enough its probably from dry air.

[cycloneye]

Is that wave of cloud moving north from the LLC a sign of Strengthening?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

To help, Ive circled waht I see with a black line.

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/412/cguf.png

That is an outflow boundarie which is not good as dry air causes it.

[windnrain]

Recon pretty consistently finding pressures in the 1001 range. Deepening system that is a full 3mb deeper than what we saw this morning, yet the sat looks like crap. I wonder what happens tonight?

[bella_may]

Judging by the Recon, this thing is hardly weakening. 59 knot winds found close to the center.

[stormlover2013]

lol it doesn't look good, its a weak tropical storm, I just see alot of rain for everyone, now it could change but I don't think it will, Euro has done a good job.

[ConvergenceZone]

>>Karen is looking terrible this afternoon....

Come on man. It's not looking terrible whatsoever. It looks exactly like a low to mid-grade tropical storm in the current environment - just as it probably should. It simply "is." It's an area of surface low pressure that's spinning and producing squalls and convection. Not to be on a high horse or anything, but the overuse of the word "terrible" when describing a tropical system of any/every type and character on this and other forums is kind of weak. People say it all the time, but tropical systems are part and parcel (e.g. products) of their respective weather patterns and conditions. If someone said it looks "terrible compared to Camille" or "terrible as compared to Wilma", okay fine. But none of those three are the same animal. You get what you get.

But it does not look terrible. It looks like it's supposed to.

Steve, I think what he means is that it looks terrible if one is looking for further development, even though I know that they really aren't forecasting too much in the way of further development based upon the conditions....Like others, I don't buy the cat 1 forecast, just my opinion....

[lester]

lol it doesn't look good, its a weak tropical storm, I just see alot of rain for everyone, now it could change but I don't think it will, Euro has done a good job.

It's still a strong tropical storm according to recon, looks can be deceiving..

[caneman]

This is DMIN. Lets see what DMAX holds. stormlover2013 - we all know you love the Euro and that you think it will weaken. You have stated this over and over and over again. Care to give an explanation?

[bella_may]

Very close to hurricane force winds. This is not an opinion, look at the recon.

[Aric Dunn]

That little bit of convection collapsing already.. too much dry air around atm.. maybe once it starts moving to the ne it can keep it out

[creole_lady]

The governor of Louisiana just declared a state of emergency.

[Airboy]

Both wind and pressure from recon indicates that it holding together better then it looked like. Will be interesting hours if the convection increase.

[CrazyC83]

Based on wind data, I think the storm's size is expanding, hence the pressure drop...