ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Frank P
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Re:

#821 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:That little bit of convection collapsing already.. too much dry air around atm.. maybe once it starts moving to the ne it can keep it out


Not sure if I agree with you totally... convection appears to be reforming more to the north of the center... and it is expanding out somewhat as well...... my opinion only...
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#822 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:47 pm

creole_lady wrote:The governor of Louisiana just declared a state of emergency.


Does he know something that we don't?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#823 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:47 pm

I can't believe this is nearly a hurricane. :eek:
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#824 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:47 pm

seems to be right on course for the next forecast point
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#825 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:54 pm

Karen is going to be hard to forecast. Storms dealing with wind shear typically are.

Some storms dealing with shear produce enough intermittent convection to warm the troposphere and allow for upper-level ridging to develop aloft; this reduces wind shear and allows the storm to strengthen. On the other hand, however, some storms don't and simply continue to weaken in an unfavorable environment.

The GFS is suggesting the former, the rest of the models are suggesting the latter.

Of note, the GFS has been performing nearly spot on with Karen up to this point.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#826 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:55 pm

These high flight level winds are not going make down to the surface with feeble convection

Karen is far from being a hurricane right now
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#827 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:55 pm

Being from Louisiana....Governor Bobby Jindal is the most proactive Governor we have ever had. He is always ahead of everything and this really just wakes up our state just in case something happens. He has done this before.
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Re: Re:

#828 Postby sunny » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:56 pm

CaneCurious wrote:
creole_lady wrote:The governor of Louisiana just declared a state of emergency.


Does he know something that we don't?


Precaution.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#829 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:56 pm

Kind of strange to have 65 mph winds with only 1004 mb pressure. Any METS want to chime in on this?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#830 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:59 pm

ronjon wrote:Kind of strange to have 65 mph winds with only 1004 mb pressure. Any METS want to chime in on this?

Already down to 1001mb according to ATCF

AL, 12, 2013100318, , BEST, 0, 229N, 883W, 55, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 30, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#831 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:00 pm

Three words...strong pressure gradient

ronjon wrote:Kind of strange to have 65 mph winds with only 1004 mb pressure. Any METS want to chime in on this?
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#832 Postby Lane » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:08 pm

This is my opinion; Like with sandy which had very low pressure I think in the 980's but winds around cat1 it was a large wind field. Karen on the other hand has a smaller wind field which may be why the winds are greater at 1001mb. Please correct me if I am wrong. :D
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#833 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:09 pm

Image
Looking ragged now... Some new deeper convection...
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#834 Postby lester » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:10 pm

NOAA plane just found a pressure of 998 mbs, definitely not weakening
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#835 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:10 pm

Far outer band approaching Dauphin Island. Radar indicating some pretty hefty thunderstorms in that line. And so it begins. We're going to need an advisory thread soon.
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#836 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:11 pm

wow.....998
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#837 Postby Lane » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:12 pm

I just noticed the NHC track has it slowing down a good bit, earlier it was showing it at the Alabama Florida line around 1am Sunday. Now it is almost at the same point but 7am Sunday.
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Re:

#838 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:12 pm

lester wrote:NOAA plane just found a pressure of 998 mbs, definitely not weakening


wow, well I hope that isn't a trend.
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#839 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:14 pm

Looking at the data, maybe a case for a 60 kt intensity?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#840 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:15 pm

61 kt winds at the surface! And new convection firing around the center.
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