ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Far outer band approaching Dauphin Island. Radar indicating some pretty hefty thunderstorms in that line. And so it begins. We're going to need an advisory thread soon.

I see that too. Batten down Mobile and westward. Breezy here in P'cola for sure.

[windnrain]

Just found 68kt FL winds. Wow.

Edit: with 997mb pressure.

If it gets its act going, it's got a lot of dmax time to strengthen.

[HurriGuy]

Good night.

look at the wind field they just flew into

[wxman57]

Kind of strange to have 65 mph winds with only 1004 mb pressure. Any METS want to chime in on this?

That stronger wind may be in a very small area, in the heaviest squalls. General winds NE and SE of the center are in the 40-50 kt range.

[Aric Dunn]

They might bump it up to 70 ... probably not given the fact it probably not making to the surface..

[HurriGuy]

They found 996.9 pressure

[Janie2006]

Someone remind me of the flight level-to-surface wind conversion, please. I knew this once.

[GCANE]

I am not too surprised pressure is dropping even though convection is weak.

Looking at 850, 700, and 500mb vorticities, they look well stacked and nothing at 200mb.

Being in the clear at 200mb allows the vorticity column to expand vertically allowing it to spin faster by conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling in their arms analogy.

[SunnyThoughts]

It always seems the Noaa flights report lower pressure than the AF planes inside the same storm.

[Bluefrog]

BIG thunderstorm band about to come on shore in Pascagoula, MS and along coast.

[hurricanes1234]

61 knots is on the upper limits of TS strength. This must be really Ingrid's sister! Same behaviour, strengthening in spite of strong wind shear.

[HurriGuy]

I keep wanting to say its moving north but its nnw at the moment and has been like that.

[Airboy]

They found 996.9 pressure

where? I only see 999-1000 mb at the center


Edit: Sorry, did not know it was two planes in the air....

[Steve]

>>They found 996.9 pressure

That kind of surprises me, but I guess it shouldn't. There is now a special marine warning in extreme south of Mobile County/barrier islands (Dauphin Island, etc.). Some of the rain from the outer fringe band is onshore in St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. I'm hoping the rain stays south as I'm going to an outdoor concert tonight to see Sigur Ros at Champions Square I won't scream too loudly if I get hit with a couple of tropical downpours, but I'd rather not get soaked if at all possible.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lix

[Bluefrog]

Janie2006 .. we are about to get popped

[northtxboy]

i know i may get alot of death threats for saying this, but I am soooo excited right now!!! 996.9 mb!!!!! tonight will be my first all nighter of the season

[xironman]

I am not too surprised pressure is dropping even though convection is weak.

Looking at 850, 700, and 500mb vorticities, they look well stacked and nothing at 200mb.

Being in the clear at 200mb allows the vorticity column to expand vertically allowing it to spin faster by conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling in their arms analogy.

Stacking is key

[lester]

RT @CIMSS_Satellite Satellite imagery of TS #Karen: http://t.co/57Q1N5x9zo New convective burst w/cloud top temp of -80C just NW of center

from twitterland

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KWBC 032022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 03/20:05:51Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
088 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 3082 m
D. 54 kt
E. 015 deg 22 nm
F. 125 deg 45 kt
G. 015 deg 22 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 14 C / 2440 m
J. 17 C / 2443 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0412A KAREN OB 04
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTS
BANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLE
MAX FL WIND 45 KT 015/22 20:00:26Z

[fsusurfer]

Wife and I are supposed to drive over to Biloxi tomorrow evening from Destin and then drive home Saturday morning. We haven't made up our mind if we are going to go or not... does anyone have any idea if/when they would close the mobile bay bridge?