ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Janie2006
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#881 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:07 pm

Frank P wrote:Well depending on the angle of the turn to the NE as it approaches the coast, it could actually make landfall in Mississippi... a bobble here or there could do that... looks more likely at the MS/AL line to me however... my humble opinion....



I can do without it, Frank. Not that my complaints make any difference, mind.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#882 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:08 pm

Image
From our Channel 3 News weather here in Pensacola.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#883 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Janie2006 wrote:
Frank P wrote:Well depending on the angle of the turn to the NE as it approaches the coast, it could actually make landfall in Mississippi... a bobble here or there could do that... looks more likely at the MS/AL line to me however... my humble opinion....



I can do without it, Frank. Not that my complaints make any difference, mind.


Well as long as it stay to my east then I don't have to take my front porch ceiling fans down.. so yall can have her Janie.... I do get my new Nikon on Friday so maybe I can get some good video and stills to post on Storm2K during the storm... if we have any weather over here in Biloxi to film...
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Re:

#884 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:11 pm

rockyman wrote:It is notable that the eastern end of the Hurricane Watch was whittled back and replaced with a Tropical Storm Watch.

Huh? It's still from Destin to NOLA. Same as the last advisory.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#885 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:11 pm

sure doesnt look like a strong TS attm....I dont know how it can be stacked either if the MLC keeps getting displaced to he NE....
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#886 Postby MidnightRain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:13 pm

It's important to note that this will be making a interesting angle towards the coastline. A landfall in SE LA with a NE motion will eventually make it's way back towards Mobile Bay, so a big stretch of the coastline could be in the brunt of Karen's NE quadrant.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#887 Postby TJRE » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:14 pm

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Vis-COD met
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

IR-ramdis
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Shear Guidance-CIMSS 1800UTC
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#888 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:16 pm

Give a girl a chance, she's about a hundred miles off the coast and people are dissing her. Patience, looks like some convection building on the west side.
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#889 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:17 pm

I think they should have kept the hurricane watch at least to Panama City. If the storm followed their track it puts all of the FL Panhandle from Panama City west to PÇola in the strongest winds!
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Re: Re:

#890 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:19 pm

bella_may wrote:
rockyman wrote:It is notable that the eastern end of the Hurricane Watch was whittled back and replaced with a Tropical Storm Watch.

Huh? It's still from Destin to NOLA. Same as the last advisory.


No, the original Hurricane Watch was to Indian Pass which is over near Apalachicola!
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#891 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:23 pm

Yea, I'm not so sure about dropping the watch this far out, but I don't work for the NHC. A landfall in Pensacola or Destin could mean trouble for those toward Indian Pass.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#892 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:27 pm

First shower passed thru about 3:45pm. Next one, which was all of a blue speck on radar, caught me coming out the grocery. Bah. Gonna be some rain around for everybody.
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Re: Re:

#893 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:27 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
bella_may wrote:
rockyman wrote:It is notable that the eastern end of the Hurricane Watch was whittled back and replaced with a Tropical Storm Watch.

Huh? It's still from Destin to NOLA. Same as the last advisory.


No, the original Hurricane Watch was to Indian Pass which is over near Apalachicola!
.

Probably has something to do with GFS still being the only model showing it going that far east
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#894 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:28 pm

To advise the members that there is a thread up with a sticky for the posting of local statements,observations,web cams for the Gulf Coast.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115797&p=2349350#p2349350
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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#895 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:28 pm

maybe it was because by the time it gets close to the coast and heads east it will have weakened to ts winds that's why they may have downgraded it points east of destin. lousiana be the closest point when it's a hurricane before weakening
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#896 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:43 pm

How the hell is this thing strengthening ?! It looks HORRIBLE yet recon shows the pressure falling? Absolutely mind boggling.
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#897 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:44 pm

998mb from Recon
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Re:

#898 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:45 pm

It's far from "terrible" looking. IMO

Time_Zone wrote:How the hell is this thing strengthening ?! It looks HORRIBLE yet recon shows the pressure falling? Absolutely mind boggling.
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Re:

#899 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:45 pm

robbielyn wrote:maybe it was because by the time it gets close to the coast and heads east it will have weakened to ts winds that's why they may have downgraded it points east of destin. lousiana be the closest point when it's a hurricane before weakening


Good point and not that you can tell much difference from a 70mph wind from 75-80mph anyway!
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#900 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:48 pm

Based on that NOAA plane dropsonde, pressure likely 997mb now (999 with 25 kt winds).
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