ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Time_Zone
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Re: Re:

#901 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:49 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's far from "terrible" looking. IMO

Time_Zone wrote:How the hell is this thing strengthening ?! It looks HORRIBLE yet recon shows the pressure falling? Absolutely mind boggling.


For a strong TS? It's completely exposed. Looks absolutely horrendous in my eyes.
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#902 Postby summersquall » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:51 pm

Image
Looked better earlier but Recon doesn't lie. Blew up last night.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#903 Postby TJRE » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:51 pm

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/hurricanes/2013/KAREN/
:uarrow:

LSU ESL has nice enhanced Sat coverage :idea:


Karen... lost a lot of her MOJO today!



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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#904 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:52 pm

Latest image, convection increasing on the eastern side. Might reach 70 mph soon.

Image


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Re: Re:

#905 Postby Red eye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:53 pm

Time_Zone wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:It's far from "terrible" looking. IMO

Time_Zone wrote:How the hell is this thing strengthening ?! It looks HORRIBLE yet recon shows the pressure falling? Absolutely mind boggling.


For a strong TS? It's completely exposed. Looks absolutely horrendous in my eyes.


To my amateurish eyes the same. Maybe dry air is the culprit here. It seems to have been a variable with some of the other storms. Lots o' dry air this season.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#906 Postby tailgater » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:56 pm

Cruising the Coast gonna be fun :roll:
But if it keeps this up it won't be much of a rain producer just a nice healthy breeze.
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#907 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:58 pm

Wow....18z GFS sends this more eastward toward the Big Bend of Florida near Cedar Key and just a tad weaker.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#908 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:00 pm

Nice little breeze here now. Outer band is about to come through.
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#909 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:00 pm

A portion of KMOB's (Mobile/Pensacola) AFD:

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS KAREN MOVES NORTH- NORTHEAST...MOVING
INLAND AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FA...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST AGAINST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND KAREN
WORKING TOGETHER TO SLOW KAREN`S MOVING INLAND. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST...WHICH PLACES KAREN`S CENTER OVER
EASTERN ESCAMBIA...AL AS IT GETS A SHOVE FROM THE COMING SYSTEM.
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#910 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:02 pm

The outer band I referred to earlier near Dauphin Island has nearly stalled along the immediate coast, not surprising given how far away it is from Karen. I'm also not surprised that coastal Jackson and Harrison counties are getting some rain at this point.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#911 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:08 pm

This has lots of dry air and shear issues. I'm glad RECON is in there because they're proving that sometimes very sheared storms that have ingested dry air can still have strong winds. It's still not clear how much both of these factors will affect it going forward since both are fluctuating. The dry air seems to be eroding somewhat so it might ease off a little bit. The shear looks like it might ease a little as well but not for long. It seems to me that if it starts recurving soon (the more easterly solution from GFS) it will encounter somewhat less shear and more moist air, and then it could do one more good intensification cycle before it gets reemed near the coast. (scientific term :) )
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#912 Postby Dave » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:13 pm

I always enjoy coming over to the discussion area while waiting for the next set of hdobs to come in...I can learn a lot of things by doing so and once in awhile I even get to learn new scientific terms... "reemed near the coast".... :lol:
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#913 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:14 pm

We'll attribute that term to Pete, he'll have a place in the Oxford dictionary: "Reemed". :lol:
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#914 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:15 pm

It's worth noting that Recon so far found the strongest winds of 58mph about 55 miles east of the center. So in this situation if the Center were for example to cross the Coast in P'Cola the strongest winds could be out near Destin, FL.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#915 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:18 pm

No wind here just light rain. Loop Current could give a boost.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#916 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:27 pm

Sanibel wrote:No wind here just light rain. Loop Current could give a boost.


No boost from the loop current this season. It's practically non-existent.

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Re:

#917 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:29 pm

Janie2006 wrote:We'll attribute that term to Pete, he'll have a place in the Oxford dictionary: "Reemed". :lol:


Well minimally the Urban Dictionary, lol. That's standard vocabulary in Brooklyn. :wink:
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#918 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:30 pm

In my opinion this looks bette this evening. More convection is firing near the center than before. Still has a very robust spin.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#919 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:36 pm

Been out. Are we getting intermidiate advisories yet?
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-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY
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#920 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:40 pm

Heard on the Radio then FEMA has been called up to work despite the shut down so they will be working through the storm.
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