Throw me an anchor would ya??

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 8:44 pm

Well......here we GO....we're going to end the monsoon season with a BANG :o NWS FLAG has 1.5-2.0" of rain starting tonight into Weds afternoon, we have a low pressure in Utah pulling up moisture from the south.......could be a toad strangler for sure :o

Dennis :o

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:58 pm

Sure sounds wet...stay dry and don't get swept away! :o

azsnowman · #3 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:42 am

It's Heeeeerreee! Started at 0125 this morning and it's still raining, not too hard but LOTSA CC-CG popping all around.....here's the NAFD for today

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

.SYNOPSIS...FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY...WITH NO MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEPENING GREAT BASIN TROUGH CAUSED A HUGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
BLOW UP OVER GILA COUNTY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAKER AND LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...MAINLY WHERE 30 KT UPSLOPE FLOW
INTERACTS WITH THE RIM. ANOTHER S/WV BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH IT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED OVER A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUN HEATING UP THE SURFACE. SEVERE CELLS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AS
WELL TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX AS THIS AREA WILL
BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY RAIN COOLED.

ANOTHER S/WV MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ZONES WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE WEST DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. DURATION OF THIS EVENT LONG ENOUGH THAT MANY
AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS IN
GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY VERIFY FIRST.

Dennis

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:24 am

Dennis - I am sure you will happily take this rain, since your area needs all the rain they can get. But I hope there are no major flooding problems!

StormCrazyIowan · #5 Postby **StormCrazyIowan** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:24 pm

I got an anchor!

Stay dry!

azsnowman · #6 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:15 pm

"HOLY *HIT!" THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF HERE FOLKS, IF YOU GET THE CHANCE, CHECK OUT THE AZ RADAR LOOP.......I'M FIXING TO BE SOCKED IN BIG TIME!

FLOOD WATCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1215 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY EVENING FOR PEOPLE IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SOUTHERN COCONINO

IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND SOUTHERN APACHE

IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
YAVAPAI

IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
NORTHERN GILA

...REPEAT THIS IS A WATCH AND NOT A WARNING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RAIN WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT
TIMES. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING TOTALS OF NEAR 3 INCHES.

FREQUENT RAIN AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS IN THESE SAME AREAS THIS
MONSOON SEASON HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THIS WATCH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED...KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING THREATENS.

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL 8 PM MST...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATCH AREA...SOME RAIN WILL BE VERY HEAVY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE AREA
OF BLACK MESA...CHINLE VALLEY AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS
IN THE WATCH AREA WILL RECEIVE TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED...KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING THREATENS.

Dennis

weatherlover427 · #7 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:23 pm

:o Keep us updated snowman! :o I heard there are big storms there today!! :o

azsnowman · #8 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:50 pm

Even the ducks are packing their bags and heading south to a drier climate "LOL!" 8-)

It's pretty SOGGY here at the moment and CHILLY too, just might have to lite the *true pot belly* :o sitting at 54° wonderful COOL °'s with a heavy squall, it looks like winter outside the office window here, low clouds sailing along the mountain peaks :o

Flood Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Hazardous Weather Outlook

EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-WHITE MOUNTAINS-

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

430 PM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

NOW... AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RODEO- CHEDISKI BURN AREA THROUGH 530 PM MST. THE GROUND IS ALREADY MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS. THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR RISES IN STREAMS AND CREEKS OF 1 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

345 PM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MST...
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. LOWS 47 TO 52 ABOVE 7000 FEET...53 TO 58 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. HIGHS 60 TO 65 ABOVE 7000 FEET...69 TO 74 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. LOWS 40 TO 45 ABOVE 7000 FEET...45 TO 50 BELOW 7000 FEET.

Dennis :o

breeze · #9 Postby **breeze** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:59 pm

LOL, Dennis, did I hear a "quack-quack"
from you?

Keep yer head outta the water, buddy!

bkhusky2 · #10 Postby **bkhusky2** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 9:21 pm

Wow! Makes me appreaciate the dry weather I'm having, and hate that 11" I got in 2 hours back in May.

breeze · #11 Postby **breeze** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 10:20 pm

Yep, bkhusky - May was our frettin' weather!

#12 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Sep 09, 2003 10:37 pm

The good news about rains in the high country is that they run downhill. Only a trace in my rain gauge today, Dennis, but I know the Lake Roosevelt area was very hard hit early this morning.

No more rain here for quite a while!

Should feel really like fall for you by Thursday morning!

Steve

weatherlover427 · #13 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 1:38 am

Let's hope that this is a sign of what Dennis is going to get this winter!

He needs a good snowpack this winter fo sure!

(typo on purpose)

azsnowman · #14 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Sep 10, 2003 7:08 am

Yes indeed Steve, forecast low for tonight..38°, that SHOULD put me at *freezing!* I'm usually 5-6° colder than the forecast low, well.......if it holds true, this will be RIGHT ON TIME, normal first frost, freeze is Sept 10th, could this mean a NORMAL winter!?!?!?!

Dennis

bkhusky2 · #15 Postby **bkhusky2** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 9:22 am

breeze wrote:Yep, bkhusky - May was our frettin' weather!

That May week will be a week I'll remember for a while, I have never seen so much rain in my life.

Probably another mild winter here in Alabama, but that'll probably mean snow. It usually doesn't snow during a cold winter because the air is too dry. Had one of my coldest nights in a while last year, hit 3.7° here in Trussville, not exactly typical of an Alabama winter.

I just want to see some snow this year, I don't want to go 3 full winters without having some snow!

azsnowman · #16 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:15 am

"Brrrr!" Kinda *chilly* this a.m.......woke up to a chilly 37°, high dewpoint, VERY high RH made it feel even COLDER! I "LOVE" the cold weather but I like to slip into it slow, not ALL AT ONCE "LOL!"

Finished up with 2.34", that ends the monsoon season on a positive note for me, let's HOPE like 'ell we can start this fall, winter season with a BANG too!

Dennis

bkhusky2 · #17 Postby **bkhusky2** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 11:23 am

I'd love to come somewhere and see snow, haven't seen more than 2.5" in 11 years!!!

azsnowman · #18 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 11:48 am

By all means bkhusky2, "Come on out!" My normal snowfall for the year is 132" :wink:

Not all at once mind ya, our average snowfall per storm is about 14-16" and MOST of the time, it doesn't melt off until mid May. Now just up the road a piece, 24 miles...........the average snowfall is about 200+".....elevation 11,000'

Dennis 8-)

bkhusky2 · #19 Postby **bkhusky2** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:05 pm

Well, as much as I play golf, i think I'll just stay where I am. Nice being able to play during the winter.

Our last big snow was the Superstorm in 93, before that I'm not sure. I know we got like 6" on I believe April 6 in 87 or 88. Snowed 5-6" in South Alabama two years ago, but none here. 95 was a fun winter, ice storm with some snow mixed in. You'll also here me gettin all excited over 1" of snow.

azsnowman · #20 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:13 pm

WoooHooo! Yet another *golfaholic* 8-)

Funny......just 18 miles to my north in a little town called Snowflake (named for a man named Snow and cattle rancher named Flake) there's a course open year yound......they VERY seldom receive snow. I just picked the sport up this past spring, I am SOOOOOO focused on golf now that my fishin' poles are SUFFERIN', I've all but given up fishin' and have taken up golf 24/7 8-)

Dennis

Throw me an anchor would ya??

Throw me an anchor would ya??

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