ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Been out. Are we getting intermidiate advisories yet?

Not so far.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Been out. Are we getting intermidiate advisories yet?

Not so far.

Interesting. Now that we have a warning, do you feel that will change? Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

I see 2 hot towers bubbling.. looks like a big burst may follow

[rockyman]

We should be getting intermediate advisories:

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

[StarmanHDB]

Karen is currently looking like the many tipsy, off-kilter drunk girls you'll find puking in the stands at any college football game!

"Like OMG! Stand up straight Karen! That's no way for a sorority sister to look! Can't you at least wait until the frat rush parties like the rest of us?"




By the way, the posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Red eye]

Karen is currently looking like the many tipsy, off-kilter drunk girls you'll find puking in the stands at any college football game!

"Like OMG! Stand up straight Karen! That's no way for a sorority sister to look! Can't you at least wait until the frat rush parties like the rest of us?"




By the way, the posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

She's a dry drunk.

[robbielyn]

Karen is currently looking like the many tipsy, off-kilter drunk girls you'll find puking in the stands at any college football game!

"Like OMG! Stand up straight Karen! That's no way for a sorority sister to look! Can't you at least wait until the frat rush parties like the rest of us?"




By the way, the posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

She's a dry drunk.

ok now that was too funny and so true lol

[Sanibel]

No boost from the loop current this season. It's practically non-existent.

So the northwest trend might be slightly favorable.

[MidnightRain]

No boost from the loop current this season. It's practically non-existent.

So the northwest trend might be slightly favorable.

Judging by the cloud tops racing off to the NE west of Karen, I would think a more NW track = more encounter with shear.

[Frank P]

I see 2 hot towers bubbling.. looks like a big burst may follow

yep, they continue to develop in the NE quad... big burst might be in works atm...

[SunnyThoughts]

couple of nice blow ups as the sun is going down.

[Hammy]

Intensity has probably leveled off about now, and will probably begin coming up as well as decreasing winds as the night goes on unless this gets some serious convection forming over the center. It has already been failing to do so all afternoon

Karen uses convective wrap! It was ineffective!

[Lane]

I am aware it is late now for visible sat, for future reference does anyone have a HiRes visible sat .gif URL?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We also have to keep in mind that the wind shear is out of the southwest. When the storm turns to the northeast, it will be moving parallel to the wind vector. This is nowhere near as detrimental to a tropical cyclone.

Remember Wilma upon emerging off the Yucatan? It was enduring a typically-deadly 30-40 knots of wind shear from the southwest. Because it was moving towards Florida, however, it actually intensified a good bit.

If Karen can take advantage of diurnal maximum and get some big thunderstorms firing, those will be able to warm the troposphere and allow ridging to develop aloft. This reduces wind shear and provides favorable ventilation. The 12z GFS indicated this.

We'll see.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure steady now - 1001 with 35 kt winds suggests 997 or 998.

[Aric Dunn]

according to recon.. looks as though it may be doing alittle cyclonic loop in response to the convection... a little west bend.. the tiny loop or just a jog. have to wait.

[Riptide]

Everyone is really hitting Karen hard, gotta have faith she is just now getting started as a tropical cyclone. Big burst over the center.

[hurricanes1234]

Can't wait to see what diurnal maximum would do to Karen.

[Aric Dunn]

We also have to keep in mind that the wind shear is out of the southwest. When the storm turns to the northeast, it will be moving parallel to the wind vector. This is nowhere near as detrimental to a tropical cyclone.

Remember Wilma upon emerging off the Yucatan? It was enduring a typically-deadly 30-40 knots of wind shear from the southwest. Because it was moving towards Florida, however, it actually intensified a good bit.

If Karen can take advantage of diurnal maximum and get some big thunderstorms firing, those will be able to warm the troposphere and allow ridging to develop aloft. This reduces wind shear and provides favorable ventilation. The 12z GFS indicated this.

We'll see.

yeah true.. however.. like wilma, charley, opal and many many others they have to be moving in the direction of the upper/ mid level winds (shear). right now karen is at a oblique angle to it not condusive.. however notice the models that intensify her.. they intensify her when she begins to move in the direction of the upper level winds... so we have to wait and see how it sets up.

[hurricanes1234]

Is it safe to say that Karen is almost a hurricane? It's just 9 mph away from minimal hurricane strength.