ATL: KAREN - Models

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#201 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:hwrf 75kt hurricane into panama

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12Z GFDL has LA landfall

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#202 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:52 pm

the HWRF is horrible with intensity. I dont even look at it unless I want a good laugh.... :lol: Track is even worse....this model was supposed to replace the GFDL years ago. Never has been good enough...lol
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#203 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:53 pm

ROCK wrote:the HWRF is horrible with intensity. I dont even look at it unless I want a good laugh.... :lol: Track is even worse....this model was supposed to replace the GFDL years ago. Never has been good enough...lol


the track has been quite consistent and its pretty much exactly like the GFS only a little stronger.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#204 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:54 pm

technically EURO actually landfalls in LA before skirting the coast....so you have all but 2 models showing somewhere other than LA..

GFS and the always horrible HWRF.....I would say Mobile -westward is a good bet right now....
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#205 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:the HWRF is horrible with intensity. I dont even look at it unless I want a good laugh.... :lol: Track is even worse....this model was supposed to replace the GFDL years ago. Never has been good enough...lol


the track has been quite consistent and its pretty much exactly like the GFS only a little stronger.



who is saying the GFS is right?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#206 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:59 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:the HWRF is horrible with intensity. I dont even look at it unless I want a good laugh.... :lol: Track is even worse....this model was supposed to replace the GFDL years ago. Never has been good enough...lol


the track has been quite consistent and its pretty much exactly like the GFS only a little stronger.



who is saying the GFS is right?


been doing better than the EURO on this by far.. euro cant even get the intensity initialized right.. the rest of the models have been flip flopping much more the gfs.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#207 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:09 pm

:uarrow: lol....well the NHC shifted west this last advisory. they might have taken into account the 12Z runs. :D

about time to stop watching the models anyway. Maybe a quick peak tonight 18Z and 0Z but after that is real time....time to just watch the wobbles.
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#208 Postby Lane » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:51 pm

18z GFS little farther west with a huge hook east through 69hrs
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#209 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:00 pm

18z GFS takes it clear over to near Cedar Key!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100318/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_29.png
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#210 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:01 pm

GFS is REALLY bullish on that hard hook huh?
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#211 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:34 pm

roughly what would a 1000 mb storm translate wind wise 50-60 mph?
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#212 Postby Riptide » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:42 pm

robbielyn wrote:roughly what would a 1000 mb storm translate wind wise 50-60 mph?

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#213 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:50 pm

its faster with the front is why...either its right or about 600 miles wrong...lol

18Z NAM= LA then hugs the coast and up and out with the front
18Z NAVGEM= same as NAM
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#214 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:56 pm

i was talking about 18z gfs big bend 1000 mb. translates about 45 mph
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#215 Postby Riptide » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:11 pm

robbielyn wrote:i was talking about 18z gfs big bend 1000 mb. translates about 45 mph

I would not take it for face-value, Karen is already maintaining a pressure of 998mb. The possibility is there that a modest category 1 cane comes through the area; as well as a weak sheared tropical storm.
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#216 Postby northtxboy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:13 pm

Do you guys remember a topical storm not sure if !t was last year or year before when all of the models showed a west turn in the gulf and the storm was heading to tx and the models was showing it becomming a hurrican hitting texas? all of the models euro included show this but the gfs was all alone with a florida landfall. for like 3 days the gfs was bullish with a florida landfall and the nhc went with all the other models and then the gfs was right.. euro didnt even show karen beccoming karen and sorry rock neither did the navgem.. i have to stick with the gfs on this i just dont think its wrong. its been the one on target with karen so far. you cant ignor that.
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#217 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:25 pm

The 18z GFS and Navgem have Karen really slowing down. Navgem south of Mobile Bay at 78 hrs and GFS south of Apalachicola approximately.
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#218 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:31 pm

northtxboy wrote:Do you guys remember a topical storm not sure if !t was last year or year before when all of the models showed a west turn in the gulf and the storm was heading to tx and the models was showing it becomming a hurrican hitting texas? all of the models euro included show this but the gfs was all alone with a florida landfall. for like 3 days the gfs was bullish with a florida landfall and the nhc went with all the other models and then the gfs was right.. euro didnt even show karen beccoming karen and sorry rock neither did the navgem.. i have to stick with the gfs on this i just dont think its wrong. its been the one on target with karen so far. you cant ignor that.


I dont remember the name either but do remember that happening.. also happened with charley
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Re: Re:

#219 Postby Riptide » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
northtxboy wrote:Do you guys remember a topical storm not sure if !t was last year or year before when all of the models showed a west turn in the gulf and the storm was heading to tx and the models was showing it becomming a hurrican hitting texas? all of the models euro included show this but the gfs was all alone with a florida landfall. for like 3 days the gfs was bullish with a florida landfall and the nhc went with all the other models and then the gfs was right.. euro didnt even show karen beccoming karen and sorry rock neither did the navgem.. i have to stick with the gfs on this i just dont think its wrong. its been the one on target with karen so far. you cant ignor that.


I dont remember the name either but do remember that happening.. also happened with charley

Sounds like Tropical Storm Debby.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Debby_(2012)
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#220 Postby northtxboy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:38 pm

Thats it rip tide!!!!! everyone thought the gfs was on crack and turned out to be right!! but it did fail with sandy. so i dont think we could just write the gfs off here. it could happen
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