ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

Any evidence for 60kts?

[Hammy]

Pressure up to 1000-1001mb on latest pass, so at the very least the intensification is finished and may be the beginning of weakening since it is turning a bit west based on the fixes, and thus further into the shear.

[bella_may]

Should begin to intensify a little tonight and tomorrow once it moves to an area where the dry air lets up a tad. Convection is already firing.

[Frank P]

Pressure up to 1000-1001mb on latest pass, so at the very least the intensification is finished and may be the beginning of weakening since it is turning a bit west based on the fixes, and thus further into the shear.

From what I can tell looking at the last few visible sat loops I see no evidence of a west turn.... still looks NNW to me, maybe a jog to the NW due to the building convection but overall pattern stills looks NNW ... my opinion only... convection continues to build as well...

[Hammy]

Pressure up to 1000-1001mb on latest pass, so at the very least the intensification is finished and may be the beginning of weakening since it is turning a bit west based on the fixes, and thus further into the shear.

From what I can tell looking at the last few visible sat loops I see no evidence of a west turn.... still looks NNW to me, maybe a jog to the NW due to the building convection but overall pattern stills looks NNW ... my opinion only... convection continues to build as well...

there was a jog to the west in the VDMs, which puts the center and the MLC even further apart.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Pressure up to 1000-1001mb on latest pass, so at the very least the intensification is finished and may be the beginning of weakening since it is turning a bit west based on the fixes, and thus further into the shear.

From what I can tell looking at the last few visible sat loops I see no evidence of a west turn.... still looks NNW to me, maybe a jog to the NW due to the building convection but overall pattern stills looks NNW ... my opinion only... convection continues to build as well...

there was a jog to the west in the VDMs, which puts the center and the MLC even further apart.

More westerly, but not west. Still northwest to north-northwest. Regardless, a jog doesn't make a permanent motion.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Pressure up to 1000-1001mb on latest pass, so at the very least the intensification is finished and may be the beginning of weakening since it is turning a bit west based on the fixes, and thus further into the shear.

From what I can tell looking at the last few visible sat loops I see no evidence of a west turn.... still looks NNW to me, maybe a jog to the NW due to the building convection but overall pattern stills looks NNW ... my opinion only... convection continues to build as well...

there was a jog to the west in the VDMs, which puts the center and the MLC even further apart.

The Center isn't a dot... Recon doesn't always go through the exact center of the storm. You can't completely tell the motion based on 2 passes you have to average out all the center fixes in order to get a general motion.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 88.9W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[robbielyn]

oh no it isn't its still on course with the tropical forecast points and it looks like on visible that the center will be relocated under the new convection to the northeast of the current llc. just my amateur opinion

[Aric Dunn]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 88.9W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

to put that in perspective..

http://climate.umn.edu/snow_fence/Compo ... table3.htm

almost north..

[robbielyn]

you can see sw sheer from bay of campeche on vis sat how strong is that sheer? thats affecting Karens west side

[HurricaneTracker2031]

http://goo.gl/aH2yaa <<< My Thoughts on KAREN

Synopsis

Karen is strengthening despite harsh conditions....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

Just finished staring at the visible loop. Looks to me that the cyclone is moving NNW to me, with perhaps a slight west of NNW bias. Does not looked to have slowed down much. Wondering how far west Karen gets before it turns to the north. Thanks Texas for all that dry air in the WGOM...really helping to keep Karen in check......MGC

[Frank P]

Just finished staring at the visible loop. Looks to me that the cyclone is moving NNW to me, with perhaps a slight west of NNW bias. Does not looked to have slowed down much. Wondering how far west Karen gets before it turns to the north. Thanks Texas for all that dry air in the WGOM...really helping to keep Karen in check......MGC

that is exactly what I am seeing MGC and also verifies pretty much on the latest set of VDMs... pressure at 999ish... right now it is due south of me... more west it goes could mean more impact to MS coast when it turns NE... wondering if it get past 90 at all?

[TJRE]

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery
at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

]

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-from an old forum head-
"she looks like Crap,,,,,, on a Stick"



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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp#Sector%205

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[robbielyn]

Just finished staring at the visible loop. Looks to me that the cyclone is moving NNW to me, with perhaps a slight west of NNW bias. Does not looked to have slowed down much. Wondering how far west Karen gets before it turns to the north. Thanks Texas for all that dry air in the WGOM...really helping to keep Karen in check......MGC

I am really surprised you say that. If you look at vis sat and put the forecast points up there, its in line with that but you can see the convection trying to pull the center into it. Aric is right its almost north, NNW at the moment but think its going to go more north soon.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Previous vortex messages from Karen, including vortexes from NOAA mission. 4pm CDT (Oct 3rd.) forecast track.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow some hot towers and increasing convection. Looks like it moved more northerly last couple frames. We will see.

[Hammy]

The NOAA plane has consistently lower winds/higher pressure estimates than the Air Force plane, is this because of the difference in measuring altitude?

[Aric Dunn]

The NOAA plane has consistently lower winds/higher pressure estimates than the Air Force plane, is this because of the difference in measuring altitude?

pretty much