ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

Previous vortex messages from Karen, including vortexes from NOAA mission. 4pm CDT (Oct 3rd.) forecast track.

This certainly looks NNW to me or even a shade West of NNW.. .my humble opinion only.. stair stepping which is what they do..

[gatorcane]

Just finished staring at the visible loop. Looks to me that the cyclone is moving NNW to me, with perhaps a slight west of NNW bias. Does not looked to have slowed down much. Wondering how far west Karen gets before it turns to the north. Thanks Texas for all that dry air in the WGOM...really helping to keep Karen in check......MGC

I see what you are seeing. In fact this short-wave IR loop shows the movement better. Definitely a NW wobble:

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100400, , BEST, 0, 238N, 888W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

[bella_may]

State of emergency just issued for Mississippi

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The NOAA plane has consistently lower winds/higher pressure estimates than the Air Force plane, is this because of the difference in measuring altitude?

The NOAA vortex messages are a little confusing right now. The pressure in the vortex messages in item H is what the sonde measured. If the sonde missed the center, the extrapolated pressure is being reported in the remarks section. In my recon system I pull out item H to create a vortex image icon of the pressure. I have not noticed what they are doing before. I'm going to see if I can find if this has been done that way before.

[MGC]

I was just looking at the recon fixes and it looks NW based on what the airplane is seeing. I trust that more than what my eyes are seeing from 22,000 miles. Looking more and more like a potential Louisiana landall....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[robbielyn]

Just finished staring at the visible loop. Looks to me that the cyclone is moving NNW to me, with perhaps a slight west of NNW bias. Does not looked to have slowed down much. Wondering how far west Karen gets before it turns to the north. Thanks Texas for all that dry air in the WGOM...really helping to keep Karen in check......MGC

I see what you are seeing. In fact this short-wave IR loop shows the movement better. Definitely a NW wobble:

no thats just a expanding blow up of convection over the llc. you cant see the llc on shortwave but you do see convection

[hurricanehunter69]

Just got back from the beach here on the MS gulf coast. In a word "Beautiful" Gail force conditions have definitely arrived on the coast! I did not expect the conditions to be as strong as they were. If I went to the beach today and didn't know any better, I would have been convinced that a major Hurricane was on it's way!

[robbielyn]

you sure can see the sw sheer inpacting western side really well on ir shortwave

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Graphical Forecast for Karen is now complete. http://goo.gl/N6bi3v
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, it is going to wobble some going around the ridge. Overall motion is still 330 or NNW.

Just glanced at all 20 members of 18z GFS Ensemble, only one Member has this landfalling anywhere but Alabama and Florida and that Member takes it in way over in central LA.

I just cannot ignore the GFS which has been pretty accurate and consistent with this so far nor its 19 members of its ensemble run.

[gatorcane]

I was just looking at the recon fixes and it looks NW based on what the airplane is seeing. I trust that more than what my eyes are seeing from 22,000 miles. Looking more and more like a potential Louisiana landall....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

Not sure about an LA landfall here. You got to think it turns NE before then especially if the system deepens and is steered more by the 500MB flow. Looking at the WV loop you can see the flow over the Northern GOM and Southern United States is veering to the SW. You can see the trough taking shape over the Rockies moving east that may be able to turn the cyclone to the ENE to NE as it gets nearer to the Northern Gulf coast:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bella_may]

Folks, it is going to wobble some going around the ridge. Overall motion is still 330 or NNW.

Just glanced at all 20 members of 18z GFS Ensemble, only one Member has this landfalling anywhere but Alabama and Florida and that Member takes it in way over in central LA.

I just cannot ignore the GFS which has been pretty accurate and consistent with this so far nor its 19 members of its ensemble run.

The gfs has been the eastern outlier the whole time. I wouldn't put all my stock into one model.

[hurricanes1234]

Back to intensity, what are your opinions? Is it looking more organised than today? Is it looking worse?

[SunnyThoughts]

Back to intensity, what are your opinions? Is it looking more organised than today? Is it looking worse?

I think it looks fine for what it is. A middle of the road tropical storm. Even if it makes hurricane strength, we won't see a symmetrical storm with a clear eye in the center on satellite. ( at least I don't think we will anyway) Probably be a lop sided, raggedy system..with most of the weather on the eastern side. Doesn't mean there won't be lots of wind and rain for sure, just not a whole lot to the west of where it makes landfall.


This is not a forecast, just an opinion. Stay tuned to local and national agencies for official forecast.

[tropicwatch]

One thing I am noticing is the heavier convection is closer to the LLC this evening. Will be interesting to see if it can completely wrap around. By the way the ir imagery is cool

[stephen23]

Looks like it did a little loop and has now tucked itself under convection on last run of shortwave ir

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
this watervapor image explains whats really influencing Karen and why it will go east gatorcane is right

[bella_may]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
this watervapor image explains whats really influencing Karen and why it will go east gatorcane is right

Looks like it's going NW on that loop

[BigB0882]

No one is questioning that this will eventually go East. The question is WHEN.