Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

150 hours out

[gatorcane]

Didn't last long, GFS is back to showing only a few weak lows at 384 hours.

As usual.

Not so fast. I see the GFS has brought it back the past few runs. Given it is a climatologically favored area, certainly think we could see something out of this. Low forms at 276 hours:



[img]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products[/img].

[ninel conde]

the newfoundland wheel is developing at 168 on the GFS but is it too late for anything of importance?

[hurricanes1234]

While I do understand that this should be the favourable area for development, 276 hours out is a very long time, and well into the fantasy range. In my opinion, especially with this year, we need to be vigilent with these runs, since they may feature a strong storm on one run, only to lower and eventually drop it in future runs.

Didn't last long, GFS is back to showing only a few weak lows at 384 hours.

As usual.

Not so fast. I see the GFS has brought it back the past few runs. Given it is a climatologically favored area, certainly think we could see something out of this. Low forms at 276 hours:

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/3757/bbk.gif

[img]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products[/img].

[blp]

The models are hinting at a return of the MJO toward the end of October. Instead of looking at specifics lows developing one thing I see is the model is consistently showing lowering pressures and if the MJO propagates as predicted we could have an active period. What I expect is a few more days of the GFS showing lows developing and then dropping them before we start seeing a more consistent concentration. This happens a lot at the beginning and end of the season especially with an MJO projected to move into our area. Let's keep watching to see how it plays out.

[HURAKAN]

the MDR is not a favored area this time of the year, anything that develops there is likely to be heavily sheared ... just like every other part of the Atlantic this year!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS like previous runs continues to show a classic October system that develops in the Western Caribbean and heads NW...definitely keeping a close eye even though it is still in the long-range. This is the time of year to watch this area of the basin and I have a feeling we will see something quite impressive that develops there this month.

Development timeframe has come in some as well...here we are at 252 hours where the low first forms:



336 hours:


384 hours:

[supercane4867]

This is what to expect for a MDR storm in early October

[alienstorm]

I still believe that there will be one classic October storm from the Caribbean later in October. This will be the end game.

[Hurricaneman]

I still believe that there will be one classic October storm from the Caribbean later in October. This will be the end game.

I have a feeling in such an instance this could be a dangerous time around mid month if the models are of any indication mainly the GFS, but as with any long range run it can be prone to large errors and must be taken with a grain of salt but its hinting at a possible dangerous pattern for the NW Caribbean, Cuba and Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is what to expect for a MDR storm in early October

This is what to expect anywhere for the rest of the season

[Hurricane_Luis]

This is what to expect for a MDR storm in early October

This is what to expect anywhere for the rest of the season

Apart from 2 hurricanes. That's the 2013 season right there.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

ECMWF also trying to move long tracked atlantic wave across ocean.. day 10 sse Bermuda, big high to north pic.twitter.com/G5h3TmtDOb

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows the low developing at 252 hours. It drifts west into Central America. Takeaway from the run is there still looks like something may get going in the SW Caribbean around 10 days from now:



300 Hours:


362 Hours:

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS ensembles

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS ensemble runs don't seem to agree with the GFS op as there doesn't seem to be much on the op run but there is something interesting on the Ensemble run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

I think the reason the GFS backed off what it was showing a couple of days ago is because coincidentally the MJO forecast now backs off bringing the pulse into our basin. I think the only way we get a decent system in this particular year is with the aid of mjo. Let's see if the models bring the pulse back into our basin in the long range.

[gatorcane]

Nothing for the past couple of days of GFS runs that impact the U.S. or Caribbean islands.

Could we possibly see no named systems in October I wonder?

[northtxboy]

Nothing for the past couple of days of GFS runs that impact the U.S. or Caribbean islands.

Could we possibly see no named systems in October I wonder?

Did you forget karen?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would say Karen fell well short of impacting anyone. Had some bands of showers around but that was it. She was a remnant even before being absorbed by the front when it went across Alabama and Florida bringing them heavy rains.