ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

Live 14 frame visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

Speed it up for full effect. Slowly drifting north?

Yep, sure looks more north to me as well...

[BobHarlem]

I gather the thing to be watching today is how much Karen fights off the shear, and noting any slowdown in northward movement (which would give credence to the GFS, and also giving it more opportunity to strengthen) If that happens overnight, GFS suddenly becomes a lot more likely, if not, you get a weaker system making landfall LA-AL in before getting kicked to the east.

[Dean4Storms]

Live 14 frame visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

Speed it up for full effect. Slowly drifting north?

It has turned more toward the North but not true north, somewhere between 330 and 360. If you look at the longer loop from the noaa floater you can see that easier.

[Bizzles]

Is there a chance the projected turn will push the CoC into the moisture that has been off to the east of the storm and allow for a better wrap up around the storm? Or will the entire system just push off to the east?

[Dean4Storms]

I'd put it at 90.2W 25.8N

[Dean4Storms]

Is there a chance the projected turn will push the CoC into the moisture that has been off to the east of the storm and allow for a better wrap up around the storm? Or will the entire system just push off to the east?

The turn and increase in forward speed would offset the effect of the SW wind shear by a little. Clearly why most models strengthen this some after the turn NE while still over water.

[Dean4Storms]

LOL.....06z GFS Ensembles didn't help one bit!

[HeeBGBz]

Looks to me like she's building back up since daybreak.

[Sanibel]

This is about what was expected. 2013 isn't supporting development. Light breeze from south here. Sunny with broken overcast.

[Evil Jeremy]

THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF KAREN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS
ALONG THE COAST...IS LOW.

Looks like the NHC is favoring the ECMWF's solution right now, but it's a low confidence forecast. Those are always the most interesting ones.

[Frank2]

Unless my fingers are wrong (lol) that makes the season total 11/2/0 (ten fingers plus my left thumb)...

[Dean4Storms]

NHC said the 12z models should have the data in them collected by the NOAA Jet last night. Hope it helps!

[HurrMark]

Currently Karen's ACE is 1.36 (per policlimate.com). A 50 mph storm is not going to boost those numbers that much from here on out. Right now the average ACE/storm is 2.38, which is a full point below the 1950-2013 record of 3.4 (1970). The only way I can see this number boosting up, I think, is if we get a subtropical system which becomes a hurricane and meanders in the Atlantic for a number of days or something in the southern Caribbean that doesn't go anywhere fast and stays south of the Gulf...

Getting back to Karen, if this can get shunted eastward quickly, it could still become a minimal hurricane. But if this just keeps meandering towards central Louisiana, this could quite possibly be a goner even before landfall, IMHO.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely leaning towards the Louisiana weakening solution here, but still low confidence. Have to trust the Euro more.

[tolakram]

LLC does not look good at all. I wonder if it starts reforming to the east like we saw last year in similar conditions?

latest

[Riptide]

This one has plenty of time to reach minimal hurricane strength. The chance of a major hurricane is now 0 percent imo; since it is taking its time. Also, the current heading looks due north and a little east of the Euro. Going with the GFS on this one as it has depicted the initial intensity as it is rather than the euro showing an open wave.

[ronjon]

Karen's turned toward the north or N-NE the last few hours. Convection also appears to be closing in around the center again too. The 12z suite of globals are key to the future track - if the ECM shifts again with the GFS, then as I've been saying, expect a significant shift east with the track (the right hook).

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20131004&endTime=-1&duration=4

[Frank P]

Karen's turned toward the north or N-NE the last few hours. Convection also appears to be closing in around the center again too. The 12z suite of globals are key to the future track - if the ECM shifts again with the GFS, then as I've been saying, expect a significant shift east with the track (the right hook).

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20131004&endTime=-1&duration=4

Sorry but I see no easterly component in any sat loops I have been viewing, in fact, looks to me it just hinted of a little wobble to the NNW... hard to play wobble wars with such a crappy looking system however... my opinion only..

[ROCK]

This one has plenty of time to reach minimal hurricane strength. The chance of a major hurricane is now 0 percent imo; since it is taking its time. Also, the current heading looks due north and a little east of the Euro. Going with the GFS on this one as it has depicted the initial intensity as it is rather than the euro showing an open wave.

the 0Z EURO didnt show an open wave rather a weak storm..lol...it also ramps it up along the coast after the initial landfall in LA...it does hook this NE but right about the time it landfalls in LA...

[HurriGuy]

Is this the turn or a wobble?