ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[N2FSU]

It appears a more northward turn, or at least a slowdown, has started in the last few frames, but I admit that it takes more than a few frames to determine if it's legitimate. It will be an interesting afternoon watching the evolution of this.

[BUCMAN48]

Good morning Ronjon,

When you say a significant shift eastward -how far might it be?

[HurriGuy]

I am looking at RGB and the overall motion of clouds over Louisiana are SSE to NNW......so I guess this is just a wobble. Doesn't seem like the steering currents suggest a turn just yet.

[MGC]

Could be a turn or a wobble due to the cyclone reacting to the recent convective burst near the center. So, another westward shift in the short turn track. Getting might close to the LA coast before Karen turns right. Beautiful day here on the MGC......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I agree, at least for now. Will see if a true turn or wobbles by another few hours.

P.S. That would be DUE and not a DO!

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I agree, at least for now. Will see if a true turn or wobbles by another few hours.

P.S. That would be DUE and not a DO!

haha yeah I get in a hurry and forget English lol

[HurriGuy]

Question: Didn't this exact thing happen yesterday evening? Convection builds near center, flattens on west side, we thing center is relocating east, several frames later the center reemerges back to the west of the convection. I am pretty sure it did if the center exposes itself once again.

[Dean4Storms]

Question: Didn't this exact thing happen yesterday evening? Convection builds near center, flattens on west side, we thing center is relocating east, several frames later the center reemerges back to the west of the convection. I am pretty sure it did if the center exposes itself once again.

Yes, but in those situations the center was moving more 325 degrees and not more northerly. If and when this turns NE you can see now that the center would be going right under the convection lessening the effects of the shear.

[Frank P]

Convection firing off again in the NE quad next to the center... Karen ugly but a tough gal..

[HurriGuy]

Looking at water vapor...the environment NW of Karen is not near as moistened as before. It looks like that dry air is right on top of the center and what convection is there.

[robbielyn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I put up forecast plots the llc is still in line for the next plot if it stays on course, the convection pulled away a tab from the llc toward the east giving the illusion that the llc changed a little to the right of north.

[Dean4Storms]

We could start seeing the center more easily as the sun gets more directly overhead and not casting the shadow over the center from the convection to its east. That being if the convection doesn't begin to wrap.

[Aric Dunn]

Question: Didn't this exact thing happen yesterday evening? Convection builds near center, flattens on west side, we thing center is relocating east, several frames later the center reemerges back to the west of the convection. I am pretty sure it did if the center exposes itself once again.

Yes, but in those situations the center was moving more 325 degrees and not more northerly. If and when this turns NE you can see now that the center would be going right under the convection lessening the effects of the shear.

exactly.. lets see if karen can get a little better organized once moving with the upper winds.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I put up forecast plots the llc is still in line for the next plot if it stays on course, the convection pulled away a tab from the llc toward the east giving the illusion that the llc changed a little to the right of north.

THe last recon fix was also a north motion...

[gatorcane]

Yeah definitely noticed it is slowing down and it looks like it is trying to turn to the north. Wobble wars continue!

GFS still insists on the sharp ENE or even E turn just before it gets to LA...then brings the system into the NW Florida area.

That is with the data injected into the model.

[Frank P]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I put up forecast plots the llc is still in line for the next plot if it stays on course, the convection pulled away a tab from the llc toward the east giving the illusion that the llc changed a little to the right of north.

Yep, I still have yet to see any easterly component regardless what view I use... now that may change soon, guess we'll find out sooner or later.. my humble opinion.... btw, it is a gorgeous day in Biloxi on the beach....

[wxman57]

Center moved nearly due north the past 3 hrs as convection started building over it. But shear appears to be increasing again and the convection on the eastern side of the center is diminishing. I'm looking at a ton of buoy reports/rig reports around Karen and what strikes me is that reports all over to its west and northwest have wind blowing almost perpendicular AWAY from Karen's center. The central Gulf buoy in the heavier squall NE of the center has been steady around 35 kts, which appears to be about the max wind in the storm now. Nothing to indicate anywhere close to 45 kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I put up forecast plots the llc is still in line for the next plot if it stays on course, the convection pulled away a tab from the llc toward the east giving the illusion that the llc changed a little to the right of north.

THe last recon fix was also a north motion...

[Frank P]

If the next couple of RECON fixes are due north then I will buy it, but one point north in the grand scheme of things does not necessarily indicate the system has turned north... lets see what the next couple of fixes brings... it does look to be slowing down however... my opinion only...