ATL: KAREN - Models

[N2FSU]

"The trend is your friend', and the fact is, the Euro has now trended eastward towards the GFS, not the other way around. If the official track forecast is a blend of the two, it only seems logical that further eastward adjustments will be made by the NHC, assuming the Euro continues or maintains it's eastward solution.

[stormlover2013]

Euro has been showing LA whole time for first landfall and gfs has been showing only FL!!!
I am sure if euro was showing Florida and GFS showing la you would be all over the EURO also lol front runner!!! just joking around with you my man!!! hey are you on warchant.com?

[Evil Jeremy]

From the 11am Discussion:

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR KAREN AND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THESE DATA WILL BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE STORM.

I'm looking forward to the GIV models! Hopefully it will clear up that spread from Louisiana to Florida.

[N2FSU]

Hey stormlover, nah man! I don't WANT it over this way, I've got a football game to go to tomorrow!
Yep, that's me over on Warchant.

[stormlover2013]

I am jballfsu27, I post sometimes but not alot!!!

[tolakram]

Euro has been showing LA whole time for first landfall and gfs has been showing only FL!!!
I am sure if euro was showing Florida and GFS showing la you would be all over the EURO also lol front runner!!! just joking around with you my man!!! hey are you on warchant.com?

Go back 5 days. GFS originally showed central LA, then switched to Florida when it started to develop a system east of where Karen formed. This is why the analysis that Karen might reform to the east is an interesting one, and one that would bust the current Euro solution. It might be because the GFS can predict cyclogenesis better than the Euro, it might be because GFS overplays these kinds of situations. Something to keep an eye on anyways.

[tolakram]

Just to review the latest GFS solution.

In 24 hours the vorticity signature is pretty bad.


In 48 hours a remarkable recovery and movement to the E/NE. So it's not really a bend to the east it's more like a reorganization and then moving east.

[ROCK]

"The trend is your friend', and the fact is, the Euro has now trended eastward towards the GFS, not the other way around. If the official track forecast is a blend of the two, it only seems logical that further eastward adjustments will be made by the NHC, assuming the Euro continues or maintains it's eastward solution.

actually the 06Z GFS trended towards LA more so than the 0Z...it hooks it E before it makes it to the coast. The EURO actually makes it to the coast before moving east.

the NHC just shifted their track left some... more in line with the UKMET and EURO and CMC and NAVGEM and even the mighty NAM.

[Aric Dunn]

about that time for the new data in to the GFS lets see what happens.. GFS is running

[Aric Dunn]

hey I bet I know what the GFS is going to stick with..

its the nam but it does well with large scale.. ( also the nam had the euro solution the whole time till the new data) it heads straight east..
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

GFS weaker this run and thus has shifted a little in the short term..

[Aric Dunn]

yep just like the 6z run turns due east almost.. south of the LA coast

lets see if the other models follow suit.

[BobHarlem]

So 12z GFS moves it a bit more north, stalls, shoots east then makes landfall around Panama City around 64 hours from the start time?

[stormlover2013]

pretty weak system!!! hope that holds true and is just some rain!!

[Aric Dunn]

So 12z GFS moves it a bit more north, stalls, shoots east then makes landfall around Panama City around 64 hours from the start time?

pretty much like the 6z only weaker.

[Rocketman]

Long time lurker here

Seems the models were a lot tighter (in agreement) when she was farther out 3 days ago!

Steve

[ROCK]

12Z NAM makes landfall in LA before the front catches and send it east...

[Aric Dunn]

notice not too much change on all the each pretty much holding true to the past couple day. be that she is right ont forecast path from 5am Im leaning toward the persistent GFS and and hwrf this given the fact the euro and others cant even initialize the system correctly and kill it in 24hr.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFDL pretty close to NHC track into Gulf Shores, AL as a strong Tropical Storm weak Cat.1

[Aric Dunn]

12z shifted east by all the useful models showing of a easterly motion than ne..

not all on the image are updated..