WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

[stormkite]

STS 1323 (FITOW)
Issued at 03:50 UTC, 3 October 2013

<Analyses at 03/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°20'(20.3°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40'(23.7°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20'(26.3°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative KMA





------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[RobWESTPACWX]

To break the flow of copy and past of the warnings ill put in my thoughts from today.
At this time though, I do think somewhere between Miyako-Jima and Okinawa will likely be the track of this storm. Sure is a pain though.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKFqmM3n-Mg[/youtube]

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A DEEPENING BAND OF CONVECTION BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND WRAPPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
A RECENT 030131Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A
WIDE BAND OF 50 KNOT PLUS WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
HAS PERSISTED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, RATHER IT HAS SHIFTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS TO PREDOMINANTLY THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DEVELOPING POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STARTING TO BE ENHANCED BY A JET
MAX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS). TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA, TURNING TS 22W TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 60, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM 28 CELSIUS TO ABOUT 25 CELSIUS
AS TS 22W APPROACHES COASTAL CHINA. VWS WILL REMAIN AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PERSISTING. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM TAU 60 THROUGH 72 WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT STRENGTHENS. FURTHERMORE, VWS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. TS 22W
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI BY TAU 84 AND WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED BETWEEN A SHARP WESTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWING THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NORTH AND EAST
OF CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE FORECAST IS
BIASED IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR IN LATER TAUS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

9th typhoon of the season...peek a boo

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE
DEEPENING BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PERIMETER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AS THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
LLCC. THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STARTING TO
BE ENHANCED BY A JET MAX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS). TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA, TURNING TY 22W TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 60, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM 28 CELSIUS TO ABOUT 25 CELSIUS
AS TY 22W APPROACHES COASTAL CHINA. VWS WILL REMAIN AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PERSISTING. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM TAU 48 THROUGH 72 WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VWS STRENGTHEN. TY 22W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI BY TAU 84 AND WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVIDED BETWEEN A SHARP WESTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM
MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND THE MODELS INDICATING A SHARPER
WESTWARD TRACK SUGGEST TY 22W SHOULD ALREADY BE TURNING. THE
FORECAST IS BIASED IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SPEED AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR IN LATER TAUS, LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

Fitow is huge!

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 25 NM
DIAMETER RAGGED EYE TYPHOON. A 031702Z MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL
AS RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 22W
IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TY FITOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FITOW IS EXPECTED TO START SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STR BEGINS BUILDING AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY TAU 24. TY 22W WILL REMAIN ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU
72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED AS TY 22W APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF
CHINA, WHICH WILL QUICKLY DEGRADE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TY
22W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AFTER TAU 72 AND
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED BETWEEN A SHARP WESTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST REMAINS NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE STORM MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BIASED IN
FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

So it looks like Fitow will bend westward before impacting Okinawa?

[stormkite]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2013
TYPHOON FITOW ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2013 21.0N 129.6E INTENSE
00UTC 04.10.2013 21.7N 129.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2013 22.5N 128.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2013 23.0N 127.4E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2013 23.3N 125.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2013 23.4N 123.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2013 24.0N 122.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.10.2013 22.3N 118.8E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.10.2013 20.9N 117.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2013 18.9N 115.6E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2013 17.5N 115.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANG
/tmp/fileSCbujy


PS. Copy and pasting a forcasts is a hell of a lot smarter than posting it by the code method.
Also like to see comparison forcast models not just a monopoly by one source. For all i know the tools used by some maybe nothin more than a asian atlas pinned to a dart board . That's where it come ashore.

[euro6208]

Seems stronger than 65 knots. Dvorak up to 5.0 and eye continues to warm.

[euro6208]

22W FITOW 131004 1200 23.2N 129.2E WPAC 85 959

Best track up to 85 knots...

[euro6208]

very impressive typhoon...can't believe this is getting less attention than karen LOL

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN EYEWALL OF DEEP
BROAD CONVECTION ENVELOPING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE
CONVECTION IMPROVES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 IS BASED ON A RE-
ASSESSMENT OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, ALL
INDICATING A 77 KNOT SYSTEM AND DO NOT APPEAR TO REPRESENT THE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS MAINTAINED THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH A FAVORABLE TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TY 22W HAS MAINTAINED A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. FROM
TAU 36 THROUGH 72, INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA WILL LEAD TO A STEADY
WEAKENING OF TY 22W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO
MAINLAND CHINA. THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
QUICKLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
120. WITH THE EXPECTION OF CMCX, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE TRACK
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF
AS THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BEEN STEADILY NORTH OF CONSENSUS FOR THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. BASED ON THE RECENT SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS DROPPED TO LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon Fitow.



TY 1323 (FITOW)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 4 October 2013

<Analyses at 04/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°30'(23.5°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW390km(210NM)
SE330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°20'(24.3°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°20'(25.3°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35'(26.6°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°55'(27.9°)
E119°05'(119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

large eye

[euro6208]

up to 90 knots...


WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
REVEAL A 30 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER OF TY 22W OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SATELLITE EYE FIXES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TY 22W HAS
MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO ITS WELL-ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH SUPPORTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.5 FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER TY FITOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING TO
MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS). TY 22W CONTINUES ITS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
AND FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MAINLAND CHINA BY TAU 48. ALSO,
THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

Down to 941 pressure.

[euro6208]

rainbands lashing the southern japanese islands...

[beoumont]

Down to 941 pressure.

Wow!!

Looking at satellite and radar I would have guessed it is an 85-90 mph storm.

But, with the center of the large eye 75 or so miles from the weather station in Miyakojima at 131 ft above sea level, they recorded 48 mph sustained and 82 mph gusts last hour, and 983 mb pressure.

[stormkite]

Down to 941 pressure.

Wow!!

Looking at satellite and radar I would have guessed it is an 85-90 mph storm.

But, with the center of the large eye 75 or so miles from the weather station in Miyakojima at 131 ft above sea level, they recorded 48 mph sustained and 82 mph gusts last hour, and 983 mb pressure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... c/22W.html


DATE | TIME | BASIN | MET | PT | DT | FT | CI | LAT | LON | PRESS

20131005 | 0201 | W-PAC | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 24.4 | -127.3 | 941




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-for ... ojima.html
wtpn33 pgtw 050900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//rmks/

1. Typhoon 22w (Fitow) warning nr 021
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
050600z --- near 24.6n 127.0e
movement past six hours - 290 degrees at 06 kts
position accurate to within 025 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt

[euro6208]

eye passing close to miyako jima...

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A BROKEN EYE FEATURE WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. A 051103Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. THE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE FRACTURED
NATURE OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
LOOP AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH HAS WEAKENED MUCH OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
A THIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF TY 22W CAN BE
SEEN BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TY 23W. TY
22W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24.
FITOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36
AND TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
AND INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEM BEING DISSIPATED OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INCREASED INTERACTION OF THE
OUTFLOW CHANNELS BETWEEN TY 22W AND TY 23W COULD LEAD TO BINARY
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THIS, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A TIGHTER CLUSTER OF MODEL
TRACKERS AS TY 22W APPROACHES LANDFALL. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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