ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely east of the NHC forecast track now.

[ROCK]

its wobbling so probably will correct itself.

[Aric Dunn]

Clear north motion a little ahead of time too. right of 11am track already..

[ronjon]

yeah but I think shes really slowing down now to a crawl - just like GFS predicted.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20131004&endTime=-1&duration=5

[Aric Dunn]

yeah but I think shes really slowing down now to a crawl - just like GFS predicted.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20131004&endTime=-1&duration=5

agreed, the convection that is being rather persistent has helped to turn her and slow down alot
crawling the last couple hour

[wxman57]

It may not move much more to the west. The slower forward speed may mean the ENE turn tomorrow will come farther off the LA coast, keeping the center south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Not much rain for LA. And the very fast forward speed when it reaches Florida will limit the amount of rain there.

[bella_may]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

[wxman57]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Don't be too worried. New guidance is indicating that the easterly turn may occur a bit farther to the south. The center may graze the mouth of the Mississippi or even miss it to the south. There may not be much rain along the Mississippi coast. Maybe an inch or two at most with that kind of a track.

[bella_may]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Don't be too worried. New guidance is indicating that the easterly turn may occur a bit farther to the south. The center may graze the mouth of the Mississippi or even miss it to the south. There may not be much rain along the Mississippi coast. Maybe an inch or two at most with that kind of a track.

Thanks!

[Aric Dunn]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Don't be too worried. New guidance is indicating that the easterly turn may occur a bit farther to the south. The center may graze the mouth of the Mississippi or even miss it to the south. There may not be much rain along the Mississippi coast. Maybe an inch or two at most with that kind of a track.

though people in florida the upper part will begin to have rain come in over night and last a couple day since its sheared and the convection is well off to east

[robbielyn]

Definitely east of the NHC forecast track now.

Definitely east of it.

[gatorcane]

It may not move much more to the west. The slower forward speed may mean the ENE turn tomorrow will come farther off the LA coast, keeping the center south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Not much rain for LA. And the very fast forward speed when it reaches Florida will limit the amount of rain there.

Yeah and I have been thinking it misses LA to the south as it turns sharply ENE. Looks like that should happen. The flow across the Northern GOM is too strong out of the WSW now to allow Karen to make it to LA.

Also, anybody notice Karen has basically stalled? Interesting as it means the GFS could be right afterall with the ENE hook into Florida.

WV image tells the story. Deep trough headed east into the Central Plains and deep SW to WSW flow beginning to take over the Southern United States and Northern Gulf.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[robbielyn]

Thank you woman!! Make plenty of sense why there has been no intensification.

He's a guy so............Hehehe

[Aric Dunn]

It may not move much more to the west. The slower forward speed may mean the ENE turn tomorrow will come farther off the LA coast, keeping the center south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Not much rain for LA. And the very fast forward speed when it reaches Florida will limit the amount of rain there.

Yeah and I have been thinking it misses LA to the south as it turns sharply ENE. Looks like that should happen. The flow across the Northern GOM is too strong out of the SW now to allow Karen to make it to LA.

Also, anybody notice Karen has basically stalled? Interesting as it means the GFS could be right afterall with the ENE hook into Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yeah its actually south of the 12z stall point too.. also note that once it begins to move to the ene with the upper flow the dry air wont penetrate nearly as much and the relative shear will decrease giving an opportunity to strengthen again.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like another burst is about to happen... I see a tower developing..

[tolakram]

18 frame live visible, speed it up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

[Steve]

About to get first band through. I'll see if I can video with my cheap *** phone and upload for the haters and everyone else who isn't going to get anything from Karen. It's the only game in town right now.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[ROCK]

looks like she is going to make her next forecast point per the sat view....just wobbling now...also looks like the LLC is more exposed than before...

[MidnightRain]

LLC and convection becoming farther and farther apart. I wonder if she can even maintain TS strength until landfall.

[bayoubebe]

Our winds here in SE Louisiana have recently picked up, and sky looks like squalls to me.
We have been told to expect 2 to 4 inch range throughout the event, but from what I'm hearing here, it sounds like we will get little to no rain?