ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

New high-res ECMWF in. Very similar to GFS. Center passes south of the mouth of the Mississippi near 7am Sunday and inland near Panama City early Monday morning. Both indicate Karen may merge with the cold front before reaching Florida. That would certainly limit the potential for intensification prior to landfall.

[bayoubebe]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Does this effect the LSU vs.MS. State game? Local games in my area have been cancelled for tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

another large burst happening on the se ... keeping her alive.. and probably move her more off track.. she a good 30 to 50 off track.

[Dave]

Ok I need someone to take over hdobs soon. Dentist appt at 3 pm and I don't have a choice... I have to leave here by 245 pm. Also NOAA2 just took off from Tampa. I'll do one more obs then I'm out.

[GCANE]

Strong cell ramping up on the microwave loop just to the east of the LLC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_12L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Given that the GFS, ECMWF and the UKMET are now centered around the central Panhandle and on the far right edge of the NHC cone, I think the NHC needs to make a big east shift at the 5pm advisory. That gives this evening for people to prepare around Panama City. If the NHC waits until 11pm then people won't be able to prepare until the next morning. Since were under 3 days for impact people need as much advance warning as possible.

This is reminding me of Debby.

[bayoubebe]

Is it correct the center is far away from the heavy rains? That's what I heard today, if so, which area then will be impacted with the heaviest of rain?

[N2FSU]

Given that the GFS, ECMWF and the UKMET are now centered around the central Panhandle and on the far right edge of the NHC cone, I think the NHC needs to make a big east shift at the 5pm advisory. That gives this evening for people to prepare around Panama City. If the NHC waits until 11pm then people won't be able to prepare until the next morning. Since were under 3 days for impact people need as much advance warning as possible.

This is reminding me of Debby.

I agree.

[HurriGuy]

looks like a wobble back to west on the newest frame. Can really see the LLC.

[jlauderdal]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Does this effect the LSU vs.MS. State game? Local games in my area have been cancelled for tomorrow.

the effect is LSU loses, sorry

[stephen23]

Almost looks like Karen has stalled. Is there any chance that she may head a little more east of Northeast from here allowing more time over water without land interaction? I know the front is moving a little faster then expected yesterday. Yesterday local mets said front would pass through DFW around noon tomorrow but news just said before 8 a.m. now. Is expected to be in east texas by noon. Would this possibly cause Karen to move more in an East direction?

[summersquall]

Seems like she may stay east of current track unless there's a pronounced westerly wobble soon.

[bayoubebe]

I'm really worried about rainfall at this point

Does this effect the LSU vs.MS. State game? Local games in my area have been cancelled for tomorrow.

the effect is LSU loses, sorry

LOL! Funniest thing I've heard all day.

Karen for NOLA from wwl:




WWLTV


Kevra: Air Force and NOAA planes are flying around Karen right now. Cool to see them both out there

[bella_may]

Remember the center is west of all the convection. So it's pretty much on track with the forecast point at the moment.

[N2Storms]

Given that the GFS, ECMWF and the UKMET are now centered around the central Panhandle and on the far right edge of the NHC cone, I think the NHC needs to make a big east shift at the 5pm advisory. That gives this evening for people to prepare around Panama City. If the NHC waits until 11pm then people won't be able to prepare until the next morning. Since were under 3 days for impact people need as much advance warning as possible.

This is reminding me of Debby.

I'm not really expecting it to be much of an event. Local mets are saying sustained winds of 20-30 with gusts possibly as high 50. The real threat would be if we received more than 4"-5" of rain because the ground is still very saturated but it sounds like it will be moving by pretty quick so rain shouldn't be much of a problem. I'm sure most folks here will be keeping an eye on it but at the rate it's going now, it doesn't appear as though there will be any significant strengthening with Karen

[Dean4Storms]

looks like a wobble back to west on the newest frame. Can really see the LLC.

Think you are seeing the illusion of the top of the convection overshooting the low level center, makes it look like it jumped west. Still moving north.

[HurriGuy]

looks like a wobble back to west on the newest frame. Can really see the LLC.

Think you are seeing the illusion of the top of the convection overshooting the low level center, makes it look like it jumped west. Still moving north.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

I swear it moved west some.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a wobble back to west on the newest frame. Can really see the LLC.

Think you are seeing the illusion of the top of the convection overshooting the low level center, makes it look like it jumped west. Still moving north.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

I swear it moved west some.

Its doing a cyclonic loop.. they tend to do that when they stall and more when sheared.

[Frank P]

From what I can tell system moved NNW.. pretty clear to me on the Vis Sat loops... put your lat and long lines in the loop frame and you can see the center move to the NNW.. my opinion... no illusion.. After further review I think I have no idea what it is doing.. looks terrible and hard to even find a decent center.. might not be moving at all.. geesh... this is one pitiful storm..

[fci]

Given that the GFS, ECMWF and the UKMET are now centered around the central Panhandle and on the far right edge of the NHC cone, I think the NHC needs to make a big east shift at the 5pm advisory. That gives this evening for people to prepare around Panama City. If the NHC waits until 11pm then people won't be able to prepare until the next morning. Since were under 3 days for impact people need as much advance warning as possible.

This is reminding me of Debby.

I don' think at this point that there is much preparing for people there to do.
Looks like just a stormy day with some squalls and some minor wind gusts.
Good day to just stay in and weather college football.