ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

bella_may · #1261 Postby **bella_may** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:53 pm

Getting a good downpour here now. Been like this off and on all day.

SeGaBob · #1262 Postby **SeGaBob** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:54 pm

NHC is still not thinking the Big Bend area just yet as of the 5pm track... but the last forecast point is about 2-3 counties to the NW of where I live...

bella_may · #1263 Postby **bella_may** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:00 pm

Tropical storm watches were extended farther north in Mississippi. FWIW

#1264 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:06 pm

NHC tack is coming right over my head now just east of Destin.

#1265 Postby **MGC** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:07 pm

Starting to feel better and better that this will be a non event for the Mississippi Coast. Track shifting south and with the center reforming to the SE will only keep it futher off the coast. Radar shows that the norther parts of Karen is desiccated compared to most tropical cyclones. Dry air has done a good job......MGC

bella_may · #1266 Postby **bella_may** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:14 pm

MGC wrote:Starting to feel better and better that this will be a non event for the Mississippi Coast. Track shifting south and with the center reforming to the SE will only keep it futher off the coast. Radar shows that the norther parts of Karen is desiccated compared to most tropical cyclones. Dry air has done a good job......MGC

Some parts are already feeling the effects. Very heavy rain inland right now!

Janie2006 · #1267 Postby **Janie2006** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:17 pm

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southern Mississippi and Southwest Alabama, nothing unusual for a warm tropical air mass, however. Summertime pattern.

#1268 Postby **psyclone** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:19 pm

MGC wrote:Starting to feel better and better that this will be a non event for the Mississippi Coast. Track shifting south and with the center reforming to the SE will only keep it futher off the coast. Radar shows that the norther parts of Karen is desiccated compared to most tropical cyclones. Dry air has done a good job......MGC

this may be a non event for everyone. 5 pm discussion was very bearish.

Aric Dunn · #1269 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:19 pm

NOAA plane just flew through the other center..still there and pressure down a half mb lol
I don think it can take over but you never know i guess

stephen23 · #1270 Postby **stephen23** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:NOAA plane just flew through the other center..still there and pressure down a half mb lol
I don think it can take over but you never know i guess

Winds actually are stronger with this one atm it seems like

Aric Dunn · #1271 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:23 pm

lol well would you look at that.. you can see it on the latest microwave forming to the sse...

very odd to do it anti poleward...

really dont think it can take over but it does and a large part of the inflow going into it..

Airboy · #1272 Postby **Airboy** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:27 pm

Interesting development

Hammy · #1273 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:32 pm

I think "strange" would be a good word to describe pretty much anything and everything going on this season.

#1274 Postby **MGC** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:35 pm

It is an interesting development. I can only recall a center reformation poleward. If this new pressure center becomes dominate it will surely mess up the forecast track.....MGC

Hammy · #1275 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:37 pm

Hopefully they'll fly through to the northeast of the wind shift to get an idea of what the winds there are.

SunnyThoughts · #1276 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:38 pm

Hammy wrote:I think "strange" would be a good word to describe pretty much anything and everything going on this season.

I agree. Don't think anything would surprise me the rest of the season. A storm system with 2 centers rotating side by side lol. Sorry, but can't help but laugh. OH well, at least apparently we don't have to worry about anyone getting weather that would cause many problems. Good luck everybody, hopefully nobody loses power, guess thats probably the worst that could happen when all is said and done.

Not a forecast, stay tuned to the NHC and local authorities for professional analysis.

summersquall · #1277 Postby **summersquall** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:41 pm

Aric -- around 24.5N 88.5W?

Aric Dunn · #1278 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:42 pm

summersquall wrote:[img]http://i39.tinypic.com/2yuwo5k.jpg[/mg]
Aric -- around 24.5N 88.5W?

25.1167N 89.3333W from recon..

SeGaBob · #1279 Postby **SeGaBob** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:43 pm

Local met out of Savannah expects Southeast Georgia and Southern SC to receive less than 2 inches and possibly less than 1 inch... but we are only 2 or 3 counties to the east of the projected path...

ConvergenceZone · #1280 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:46 pm

psyclone wrote:
MGC wrote:Starting to feel better and better that this will be a non event for the Mississippi Coast. Track shifting south and with the center reforming to the SE will only keep it futher off the coast. Radar shows that the norther parts of Karen is desiccated compared to most tropical cyclones. Dry air has done a good job......MGC

this may be a non event for everyone. 5 pm discussion was very bearish.

A non-event of a storm in 2013? You are kidding me! :lol:

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