ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

I think it's still too early to write this system off like some are doing... but then again it's 2013...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stephen23]

im not seeing the new center wrapping the convection around itself. doubt it will sustain itself

Isn't the area where llc is trying to reform observed by hurricane hunters suppose to be around 25N 88W? If so, is it possible we can't see it is that it is under the only convection that has been constantly firing for past few hours?

[hurricanes1234]

2013 is having a full-blown laugh as it continues to troll people miserably.

[robbielyn]

im not seeing the new center wrapping the convection around itself. doubt it will sustain itself

Isn't the area where llc is trying to reform observed by hurricane hunters suppose to be around 25N 88W? If so, is it possible we can't see it is that it is under the only convection that has been constantly firing for past few hours?

you should see some rotation of the storm like you can see with the exposed llc you dont see any rotation in the convection

[HurriGuy]

2013 has been one "fun" year. Winter storms are now the active season. Kind of like watching Atlas.

[HurriGuy]

HI-definiton visible showing some big thunderstorms just SE of the center.

Couple frames in since moving, and a couple frames left, show it back moving NNW. Maybe just a little left of due north.

[stephen23]

im not seeing the new center wrapping the convection around itself. doubt it will sustain itself

Isn't the area where llc is trying to reform observed by hurricane hunters suppose to be around 25N 88W? If so, is it possible we can't see it is that it is under the only convection that has been constantly firing for past few hours?

you should see some rotation of the storm like you can see with the exposed llc you dont see any rotation in the convection

hopefully we will see soon. Recon down in that area now

[HurriGuy]

Also....there are not much thunderstorms left by the original LLC

[Aric Dunn]

I think it's still too early to write this system off like some are doing... but then again it's 2013...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah I dont think its going to die but not likely to get stronger except maybe for a brief time as it begins to move with the shear.. tomorrow

[HurriGuy]

NHC goes stationary! Haha. Dropped it a mb. 1002

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
if you view this wv link, you will see two things inpingeing on it, sheer which is strong at the 200mb level per nhc, and now you can see the dry air invading it from the nw gulf so nothing can even remotely stack, its toast bottom line. the cloudtops are warming significantly. Its two against one, not a fair fight.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

recon find that second circ has collapsed

or moved.. not their primary target ..

[SeGaBob]

recon find that second circ has collapsed

That means the main one has to pull through somehow right?

[HurriGuy]

I don't where NHC is getting this 50 mph from. At the point where I will be shocked if this pulls itself back together. Poor Karen.

[hurricanes1234]

recon find that second circ has collapsed

This is absolutely hilarious. So that narrows it down to one weak and dissipating circulation being asphyxiated by dry air and at the same time, being dissected away from the convection by increasing shear.

[robbielyn]

bingo.

[wxman57]

I don't where NHC is getting this 50 mph from. At the point where I will be shocked if this pulls itself back together. Poor Karen.

They often tend to be a bit "generous" with winds in a system that is approaching land. They don't wan anyone to let his/her guard down just in case it strengthens. In truth, winds are about 35-40 mph now, and 40 mph may be a bit generous. Obs suggest max winds closer to 30-35 mph.

[HurriGuy]

I know generally weak systems aren't as influenced by steering currents so if this does collapse or weaken significantly, does the storm and moisture trend more west again or is it too far north where it doesn't matter?

[robbielyn]

no the front will push it east as well as the sheer blowing convection eastward. sheer and dry air keep it from wrapping convection around the system.