ATL: KAREN - Models

[SeGaBob]

is the gfs still showing a hurricane at landfall?

As far as I know it dropped hurricane strength.

[summersquall]

Thought this was interesting from the NHC 5pm Discussion:
THE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE
NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER
RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATIED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE
MODEL IN REAL TIME.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS shows near dissipation in 24 hours followed by a very weak 1007MB storm heading east.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013100418/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl.html

[ninel conde]

been awhile since the GOM north of 25n has been able to produce much. that model does show another storm in the very long range.

[Pigsnibble]

So...we calling No Joy on Karen ?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Euro should have stuck with its original line of thinking. Looks like what it showed originally is in the process of happening.

[ROCK]

Euro should have stuck with its original line of thinking. Looks like what it showed originally is in the process of happening.

yep and the 12Z EURO has this pretty weak as it makes the turn....maybe a naked swirl weak....lol...4pm discussion fairly straight forward with the GFS shifting left towards the EURO.

Shes fully decoupled now and unless she fires off something new soon there wont be much left of her to model...

[bella_may]

The GFS is wrong once again. Imagine that

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Doesn't matter what any models show, the putrid conditions out there this season will prove them all wrong. And that has pretty much been the case all summer.

[Steve]

Been following the models but not closely enough to write a synopsis. For my money, the center of circulation (the real one) is much more in line with what the nam and cmc had been showing than any of the usually superior models. The center is a little farther west, and still moving nnw, than I thought it would get. Now we see if there is any rainfall of medium significance here over the next 24-30 hours as nAM simulated radar had been showing the last few runs. I'm still going with the Steve model which looked at things tues and wed and figured we'd see a sheared system of mid-grade tropical storm strength making landfall around Navarre beach and ft Walton beach. This is #2 of what I thought might be 3 landfalls in the eastern gulf or SE coast. And it's the 384 range GFS, but it wants to bring a much larger system up out the Caribbean toward the end of the run. Funny thing is, is that wE could possibly see the L and maybe M storms before then. Stay tuned.

Tis post is NOT official.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would be shocked if we get any rain from whatever is left from this tomorrow Steve. Am planning on getting up and going to play some golf then coming home and start to clean on the boat to get it ready ready for some intense fall fishing all the while enjoying a breezy overcast day.

As far as phantom storms this far out, not buying it. Three have struck out already in the gulf since august and things havent changed since and see nothing to beleive conditions will suddenly improve otherwise.

[stormlover2013]

Euro wins again!!! Lol had this thing weak the whole time!!! Glad this thing didn't come a beast now everyone can watch college football tomorrow happy!!

[LaBreeze]

Euro wins again!!! Lol had this thing weak the whole time!!! Glad this thing didn't come a beast now everyone can watch college football tomorrow happy!!

And my barbeque can go on as I had always planned.

[ravyrn]

Euro wins again!!! Lol had this thing weak the whole time!!! Glad this thing didn't come a beast now everyone can watch college football tomorrow happy!!

How is this a EURO win? Hasn't it been consistently showing a Louisiana landfall?

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro wins again!!! Lol had this thing weak the whole time!!! Glad this thing didn't come a beast now everyone can watch college football tomorrow happy!!

How is this a EURO win? Hasn't it been consistently showing a Louisiana landfall?

Personally, I'm sick of the "EURO wins" or "GFS wins" posts. It's not a contest.

[ravyrn]

Euro wins again!!! Lol had this thing weak the whole time!!! Glad this thing didn't come a beast now everyone can watch college football tomorrow happy!!

How is this a EURO win? Hasn't it been consistently showing a Louisiana landfall?

Personally, I'm sick of the "EURO wins" or "GFS wins" posts. It's not a contest.

Agreed. It would seem no models win this one. Since they all missed the track, intensity, or both.

[bamajammer4eva]

When did the Euro even show this being Karen beforehand?

[stormlover2013]

@BigJoeBastardi: karen pressure up to 1007 mb. ECWMF wins again

@BigJoeBastardi: This has been another epic fail of US models designed specifically for hurricanes as both GFDL and HWRF made Karen 80kt storm, ECWMF NO!

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry, EURO did not win anything. I recall it stubbornly taking the Low over the Yucatan off the NW tip and making this nothing but a bump in isobars toward LA/TX border when the GFS was developing a Tropical Cyclone off the NE tip of the Yucatan and taking it northward.

So neither performed well enough to call them a winner!

[Frank P]

Sorry, EURO did not win anything. I recall it stubbornly taking the Low over the Yucatan off the NW tip and making this nothing but a bump in isobars toward LA/TX border when the GFS was developing a Tropical Cyclone off the NE tip of the Yucatan and taking it northward.

So neither performed well enough to call them a winner!

Per the NHC and their 10 am discussion...
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED
QUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD
AFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE
DECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.