Possible development in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

This wave is the one the models are bullish on.Let's see what happens.

8 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 04/1800 UTC ANALYSIS FROM
15N18W TO 5N18W MOVING W 5-10 KT. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM BAMAKO MALI AND DAKAR SENEGAL THIS WAVE MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA LAST NIGHT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NEW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION."


2 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N20W
TO 7N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-
16W.

[Gustywind]

This wave is the one the models are bullish on.Let's see what happens.

8 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 04/1800 UTC ANALYSIS FROM
15N18W TO 5N18W MOVING W 5-10 KT. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM BAMAKO MALI AND DAKAR SENEGAL THIS WAVE MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA LAST NIGHT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NEW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION."


2 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N20W
TO 7N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-
16W.

Thanks for that Cycloneye . So, what do the models with it when you say bullish?

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 13N20W TO
5N22W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-
16W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO at 0%-30%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[wxman57]

This should be an exciting storm to track out into the open Atlantic, far from any land!

It'll help get my the number of named storms up closer to mine at least. Let's see, I think I had 16/9/5. Not bad!

[hurricanes1234]

So this could become a relatively strong fish storm? I hope 2013 doesn't win and destroy the storm in its early stages like it's done to all the rest so far.

[gatorcane]

Both the ECMWF and GFS are showing development so this looks like a "go."

This would technically be a "Cape Verde" storm if it developed. It would be unusual to get something to form out there so late in the season. Could be a long tacker also.

[Ntxw]

So this could become a relatively strong fish storm? I hope 2013 doesn't win and destroy the storm in its early stages like it's done to all the rest so far.

I can't seem to find anything on models showing a strong system. Both GFS and Euro does have a named system potential from this area but neither is sub 1000mb at this time. MDR has been hostile this year. With big trough above it, don't think it will make past 60W much. Probably another name waster for wxman57

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Both the ECMWF and GFS are showing development so this looks like a "go."

This would technically be a "Cape Verde" storm if it developed. It would be unusual to get something to form out there so late in the season. Could be a long tacker also.

The FIM model also develops it.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013


A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG
22W FROM 05N TO 12N AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LATITUDE WAVE
IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED IN A NARROW BAND FROM 12.5N20W TO 10N23.5W.

[hurricanes1234]

The models are not going to successfully deceive me anymore. We've been exposed to their runs enough this year to know when they're telling a little lie. If the future runs keep lowering it, then you know it's likely going to be either of the following:

1. A short-lived, weak and deprived TS or TD that modestly strengthens, then weakens.
2. An invest that tries to develop, but encounters something like dry air or wind shear, and does nothing noteworthy after that.
3. Nothing whatsoever (not even an invest).

The first and second scenarios seem most plausible to me once the runs start lowering every time. I will watch out for future runs, but I would not at all be alarmed in any way, if the runs do what is mentioned above. If, however, the runs are showing development up to between 120 and 168 hours out, then we know for sure we're onto something. As for longer ranges, it is wise to simply wait and see, but if the runs are being lowered everytime, then it will most likely be another 2013 phantom system.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 11N24W AND MOVES W
AT ABOUT 15 KT. EVEN THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ...STRONG SHEAR IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS
NE OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 19W-21W COINCIDING WITH AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.

[Gustywind]

2 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO
5N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS
IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-14N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

[Gustywind]

2 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO
5N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS
IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

[hurricanes1234]

This doesn't look promising at all. Can environmental conditions ever be favourable for more than one day this year?!!