ATL: KAREN - Models

[AJC3]

This back-and-forth, arguing, and rah-rah stuff concerning the subjective performance of the ECM forecasts needs to end. These arguments are useless and are cluttering up yet another thread. The mods and admins have had to step in and stop this silliness too many times to count. Let's try and be more objective and balanced about the strengths and weaknesses of the model forecasts, instead of cherry picking certain aspects of the forecasts to fit an argument.

Yes, the ECM track of Karen's 850 MB vortex has been superior to that of the GFS, which has had a fairly significant east-of-track bias for many of its runs. However, compared to the GFS, the ECM was underdone to a fairly large degree with Karen's initial spinup. In addition, the ECM did have a few runs that showed a very weak t-wave/inverted trough making it all the way into the NW GOMEX. In fact, one or two of the very early ECM runs from a little over a week ago actually showed Karen making a right hook into the Florida peninsula.

ALL forecasts have some magnitude of error - some more than others. In the future, these back-and-forth arguments can be avoided if we show a little more objective analysis, and a little less of the ra-rah stuff.

Thanks.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows a sharp turn to due E or even just slightly south of E taking her into the Cedar Key area of Florida..though she is weak throughout the run and gets absorbed into the front on her approach to Florida.

[robbielyn]

12Z GFS shows a sharp turn to due E or even just slightly south of E taking her into the Cedar Key area of Florida..though she is weak throughout the run and gets absorbed into the front on her approach to Florida.

does that mean rain and some wind for spring hill fl? i live an hour south of cedar key. how strong r the winds going to be, like 35 mph? will it be a weak ts or td according to gfs 12z?

[ronjon]

Pretty weak Robbie. Was a little worried earlier but not now.GFS shows a 1007 mb low attached to a front. Might just be showers and a little wind.