ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[KimmieLa]

She definitely has gone further west than I thought she would. I see the front moving towards her. So, she probably are going to be taking a trip east over southeastern LA before too long. Raining here again. Breezy.

Not a forecaster, so this is not a forecast, just a very untrained observation.

[pgoss11]

why are people so excited about a mere weak tropical storm?

over here, we get bored of these as we are used to strong typhoons regularly...

It's all we got, so we are making the best out of a storm starved season..call it pathetic if you like but right now it's just something to watch.

[HurriGuy]

Been breezy here in Louisiana with off and on showers. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[HurriGuy]

I think she has drifted to 92W. I don't think anyone expected her to go that far.

[MGC]

I don't think karen has stalled, just an illusion due to the recent convection near center. I think the new convection will ensure Karen maintains TS intensity till landfall......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

shear dropped a little and convection coming back... love the tropics...

[CrazyC83]

Notice a pressure drop to 1007 or so well to the west, southwest of Lafayette, LA...start of a new center?

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think karen has stalled, just an illusion due to the recent convection near center. I think the new convection will ensure Karen maintains TS intensity till landfall......MGC

well considering the gfs still calling a for brief stall before heading nearly due east .. its not a far stretch to say and stall might happening. Also its been well mentioned and understood that a weak low level system would have taken a more northerly/nnw track and a deeper and more ne to east... so would not be surprised if the present convection maintains that would likely lead to a more easterly motion.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection returning to Karen's center. People last night were trying to kill her off way to quickly. Looks like she is slowing down just below 28N.

[HurriGuy]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&map=latlon

Umm...what just happened to Karen's center? Looks like it just exploded

[SeGaBob]

In the last frame of this loop the convection trying to wrap around seems to hesitate some... but I still think it has a chance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-rb-long.html




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&map=latlon

Umm...what just happened to Karen's center? Looks like it just exploded

pressure wave from the collapse some of the convection.. the clouds disappeared because its on the sinking side of the wave or trough.. it will come back shortly..

[Storm Rider]

Karen's rain bands have passed through LA into South Central MS.
Please stay away from Starkville...LSU has a game to win there at 6 pm.

[lester]

why are people so excited about a mere weak tropical storm?

over here, we get bored of these as we are used to strong typhoons regularly...

maybe you shouldn't be posting on the Atlantic side if you're so bored <_< we get it, the WPAC is better than every basin ever

[Aric Dunn]

why are people so excited about a mere weak tropical storm?

over here, we get bored of these as we are used to strong typhoons regularly...

maybe you shouldn't be posting on the Atlantic side if you're so bored <_< we get it, the WPAC is better than every basin ever

most here like the the forecasting part and just the unknown.. to learn ... not about boredom for most all excited.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmmm recon finding another vort trying to get going to the sse again in the convection... the original llc might be weak enough to reform..

[SeGaBob]

2pm intermediate advisory says Karen has stalled.

[Ntxw]

maybe you shouldn't be posting on the Atlantic side if you're so bored <_< we get it, the WPAC is better than every basin ever

I don't think he meant it that way and was a sincere question.

To euro6208, the Atlantic suffers a lot from shear, dry air, sal (this year you can magnify it x10) unlike the WPAC. Most of our time is spent watching thunderstorm blobs and small bursts of convection. That's 90% of the season...unlike over there you guys track by eye-walls.

Karen still has a strong cold front to contend with. Stalling won't help her cause, it will be moving off the Texas coast later tonight.

[wxman57]

Convection east of the center is starting to wane. Cloud tops are warming. Recon isn't finding any TS winds. Time to downgrade...

[SeGaBob]

Convection east of the center is starting to wane. Cloud tops are warming. Recon isn't finding any TS winds. Time to downgrade...

I don't think the convection itself is waning but rather being blown away from the center... and I think you're right about the downgrade.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.