12Z GFS: the sit and spin version

[ameriwx2003]

Well the 12 Z GFS has changed it tune for this run and has Isabel east of the Bahamas spinning in place for a few days before heading NE and brushing the Candian Martimes down the road . I have no doubt we will see several other solutions in the days ahead. Maybe when we get some data from the GIV flight it will help :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[john697]

Yup, builds high pressure from New England down the apps which blocks the storm.

[ameriwx2003]

A MET friend of mine keeps reminding not to key on any one model run but look to see a trend develope. The GFS starting yesterday to today, has had this from Texas to Florida to the Candian Martimes;):)

[njbeachwx]

Hmm 12z yesterday said due west to baja. I see a pattern?

[Stephanie]

:?

I'm starting to believe that they recycle their forecasts.

Don't worry, tomorrow's 12Z will have her back in the GOM!

[ameriwx2003]

The one thing I have picked out of the GFS( my opinion only) is somewhat of a trend has emerged. The idea of it slowing and stalling around the bahamas or close to Florida has shown up on some of the runs it strays but seems to want to come back to the idea of a slow moving and or stalled system between florida and east of the bahamas.. this is still several days away so alot of fine tuning will be done:):) . I wouldn't be surprised to see a Dennis type situation where it does sit and spin near the BAhamas.. we will see;):)