Texas Fall 2013
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2013
I just turned off my A/C and put on my jacket...
I just put on my jacket! Jacket weather! Yes! Now, I turn you over to NPH, who will assess the situation.
I just put on my jacket! Jacket weather! Yes! Now, I turn you over to NPH, who will assess the situation.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Next we turn to Ned Stark, an avid fan of the PWC and it's northern satellite office. He seems adamant that a cold and long winter like none ever before seen is coming and made a brief statement:
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
I'm liking the radar echoes popping up out west of here tonight! Let's hope it holds together!
000
FXUS64 KEWX 060233
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN FAVORABLE JET QUADRANT. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AS UPWARD FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASES TOWARD MORNING AS UPWARD FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE GONE WITH SAME POPS ALL OF TONIGHT. DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 060233
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN FAVORABLE JET QUADRANT. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AS UPWARD FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASES TOWARD MORNING AS UPWARD FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE GONE WITH SAME POPS ALL OF TONIGHT. DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
it is now 3:13 a.m. good amount of lighting and thunder, very loud at my house right now. After a few days of local weather reports saying we wouldn't get much if anything, there is a line of thunderstorms moving into the Austin area right now. I do not expect a lot of rainfall accumulation though but at least we are getting some rain. I would assume when all is said and done between a quarter of an inch to maybe just over half in the higher amounts. 
now time to get off the computer as there has been some very close strikes. 
now time to get off the computer as there has been some very close strikes.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Okay I've decided to lower rain amounts to highest being a
quarter inch at most. These are high based storms so a lot of the rain is evaporating before it hits ground. What we are getting are the lucky droplets that survived the journey. Still, it is a nice calming an relaxing sound. I have the windows open and it is really relaxing.
While this system did not give us enough rain to fill the lakes, what it is doing is keeping the soil damp, which prolongs the soil moisture from drying up. I'm quite happy that we are getting this weekend. No more lightning and thunder as of 4:30 a.m. but I am happy about this light rain rather than nothing at all.
Have a great night all.
quarter inch at most. These are high based storms so a lot of the rain is evaporating before it hits ground. What we are getting are the lucky droplets that survived the journey. Still, it is a nice calming an relaxing sound. I have the windows open and it is really relaxing.
While this system did not give us enough rain to fill the lakes, what it is doing is keeping the soil damp, which prolongs the soil moisture from drying up. I'm quite happy that we are getting this weekend. No more lightning and thunder as of 4:30 a.m. but I am happy about this light rain rather than nothing at all.
Have a great night all.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Yes yes, I am still up though pretty tired now. It stopped raining and I went out to check my gauges to see what the the moderate to light rain from the thunder shower activity had given us here in the heart of South Austin. I received 0.55. 
More than what I was expecting to my delighted surprise. I have two rain gauges of different makes and in different areas of the yard so I double checked the second and it also showed just over 0.50 inches. obviously does nothing for our lakes but on a more micro local level, this will help keep the soil moist from last week and the week before rains. It will keep grass and plants green, which helps as well, unfortunately, not everybody saw rain and it really is the luck of the draw to what area gets what rainfall amounts so I hope this is not going to be the norm for future systems. For now its fine and will hold some of us over for the week, now its time to set our eye on the next system and hope we get rain out of it. 
More than what I was expecting to my delighted surprise. I have two rain gauges of different makes and in different areas of the yard so I double checked the second and it also showed just over 0.50 inches. obviously does nothing for our lakes but on a more micro local level, this will help keep the soil moist from last week and the week before rains. It will keep grass and plants green, which helps as well, unfortunately, not everybody saw rain and it really is the luck of the draw to what area gets what rainfall amounts so I hope this is not going to be the norm for future systems. For now its fine and will hold some of us over for the week, now its time to set our eye on the next system and hope we get rain out of it.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Congrats JDawg512! My electronic sensor shows 0.38. The regular gauge next to it just shy of 0.4. Not below any trees or wires. Out in open. I'll go with 0.4.
I wasn't expecting more than a tenth! Very nice.
. Yeah, not a lake or groundwater fixer, but definitely good for maintaining the soil moisture and everything living in them. This is the third weekend in a row I have gotten measurable rain, the most last weekend at 3 inches. I'm also looking forward to the next system and rain potential! Oh, and it is 55 degrees at my area, which helps with reduced evaporation! 
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Some thoughts this Sunday morning:
* Kudos to ravyrn for securing Ned Stark's comment about the days ahead. A wise king and his words should be minded, don't you think?!
* An Austin-area shout out to JDawg512! Dude, you're as sick as the rest of us with your middle of the night posts about the line of storms we had and the subsequent rainfall. Love it! You're going to fit right in here, sir.
* And speaking of dudes ... hey weatherdude1108 ... pretty cool we've had three consecutive weekends of rainfall, eh?! I wonder how much of a muddy mess Zilker Park is this morning for all of the ACLers.
* The Portastorm Weather Center recorded .41 inches of rainfall from the overnight storms. There must have been some active cloud-to-ground lightning strikes because several of them were followed by house-shaking thunder. The head meteorologist at the PWC was awakened by one, immediately fired up his blackberry and the Weatherbug app to check radar, and was pleased to see shades of yellow and even a few reds over the Austin metro area.
* Bottomed out at 54 degrees this morning at PWC. Enjoy this beautiful day, Texas! And remember ... WINTER IS COMING!
* Kudos to ravyrn for securing Ned Stark's comment about the days ahead. A wise king and his words should be minded, don't you think?!
* An Austin-area shout out to JDawg512! Dude, you're as sick as the rest of us with your middle of the night posts about the line of storms we had and the subsequent rainfall. Love it! You're going to fit right in here, sir.
* And speaking of dudes ... hey weatherdude1108 ... pretty cool we've had three consecutive weekends of rainfall, eh?! I wonder how much of a muddy mess Zilker Park is this morning for all of the ACLers.
* The Portastorm Weather Center recorded .41 inches of rainfall from the overnight storms. There must have been some active cloud-to-ground lightning strikes because several of them were followed by house-shaking thunder. The head meteorologist at the PWC was awakened by one, immediately fired up his blackberry and the Weatherbug app to check radar, and was pleased to see shades of yellow and even a few reds over the Austin metro area.
* Bottomed out at 54 degrees this morning at PWC. Enjoy this beautiful day, Texas! And remember ... WINTER IS COMING!
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gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4080
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Ran a 5k yesterday morning and it was 74 and humid. While waiting for the race results to be announced, the front came thru Rockwall around 10am. I went straight to my 9yro soccer game and it was misting, windy and getting colder. By games end it was 53 and I was freezing in shorts and short-sleeved shirt. It felt good, but it also was painful.
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SaskatchewanScreamer
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:
Eagerly awaiting fropa here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. My son @ TTU texted me this morning that it felt quite brisk up there in Lubbock with temps in the lower 40s and a stiff north breeze!
And now ... all of this cold front talk makes me compelled to share a special message for wxman57. Here it is:
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Hello boys....
I've been getting him in prime condition for his travels this winter.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Nice ... Saskatchewan Screamer ... very nice! And scary!! Y'all know how to make a winter up there.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
PFFT, Ms Screamer isn't doing her job! Our chilly air now is coming from the snow fields of South Dakota and Wyoming. Her lands are still too green! We demand snow and cold now!!!
Something like long range euro will suffice.
Something like long range euro will suffice.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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SaskatchewanScreamer
Re:
Ntxw wrote:PFFT, Ms Screamer isn't doing her job! Our chilly air now is coming from the snow fields of South Dakota and Wyoming. Her lands are still too green! We demand snow and cold now!!!
Something like long range euro will suffice.
oh no.... I plan on getting his path set up just right before I release him here. 
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northtxboy
- Category 1
- Posts: 262
- Age: 43
- Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:50 pm
- Location: Windom Tx
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Such a beautiful day here in Windom Tx!!! I dont know what the temp is right now but i can tell you it feels fantastic!!! I was out riding fence's this afternoon needed a light jacket. now just sittin on the front pourch. I am ready for the snow!!!! kinda hopeing for another white christmas like last year
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Rgv20
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- Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx
Got down to a chilly 54 this morning!
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
If the ECMWF verifies early next week, there's gonna be some happy people in central and south texas.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Location: Round Rock, TX
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
I don't know what interests me more ... the place where you got those maps or what the maps show! I never have seen the Euro depicted in such a user-friendly way. You might want to be careful though in sharing those maps with us since they're pay-per-view. Just sayin.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Interesting EWX discussion. Seems like we can count on the Pacific more than the Gulf of Mexico lately.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENCE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
DRY SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SELY WINDS TO RESUME ACROSS THE
AREA AND DEW POINTS TO REBOUND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO TX AT THE MID WEEK...WITH SELY
BREEZES INCREASING AND SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW KICKS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...MORE LIKELY STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN THE SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS ONLY BRIEFLY
BACK-DOORS THE FRONT INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIMIT HEATING EACH DAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATED A POSSIBLE TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENCE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
DRY SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SELY WINDS TO RESUME ACROSS THE
AREA AND DEW POINTS TO REBOUND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO TX AT THE MID WEEK...WITH SELY
BREEZES INCREASING AND SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW KICKS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...MORE LIKELY STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN THE SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS ONLY BRIEFLY
BACK-DOORS THE FRONT INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIMIT HEATING EACH DAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATED A POSSIBLE TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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