2013 EPAC Season

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hurricanes1234
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Re: Re:

#281 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Is this 92E?
It's not everyday you see the Euro forecast a Category 2 Hurricane... If all pans out, we could see our first major Hurricane.


This isn't 92E, 92E is having great difficulties maintaining convection right now. The system being referred to is currently only a model prediction, but things can change soon. :wink:
I will definitely monitor this, however, I will not get hyper, unless I see it forecasting a Category 2 or higher soon before development. Too much overestimation by the models this season. :lol:

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euro6208

Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#282 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:39 am

euro showing a small midget hurricane...
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#283 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:21 am

00Z ECMWF continues to show a hurricane but weaker

GFS has nothing
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#284 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:50 am

See what I mean about this season? Yesterday, it was showing a bigtime Category 2, and now, it's probably barely a hurricane. I am sure it will continue to go down and down until a weak and pathetic, short-lived TS eventually develops, if anything at all, adding nothing to the ACE. I am getting really tired of this, and would like this season to be done with.

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#285 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:15 pm

Down to a 1003mb TS on the 12Z ECMWF :lol:

Models trying to troll us again
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#286 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:02 pm

Mightn't even have a TC at this rate. Same issues again and again from the early season up to now, dry air, strong shear, scarce instability, lack of disturbances, and the list goes on and on and on. I do not wish landfalls on anyone, but at the same time, it's interesting to see a strong, open-water storm harming no one. This year, everything has been against the formation of these, that is why with the exception of Henriette, we have seen zero storms stronger than 85 mph hurricanes. Gil was a nice open water hurricane, which is the less harmful type, however, it abruptly and inexplicably fell apart over warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear. The NHC even noted that they couldn't explain why it weakened, because the shear was slight, and waters were 27.5°C. Many of the other storms were minimal, except for Kiko, which made it almost to a hurricane (70 mph). But again, it failed to strengthen further than 70 mph, even when it still had the chance to, and most importantly, when it was forecasted to. Manuel was a nice hurricane to look at, but what wasn't nice at all was the amount of people killed by the storm, and the others severely injured/affected. The early season had more hurricanes, but they all affected people, with the exception of Dalila, which again, got sheared apart after reaching 75 mph. This leaves only Henriette behind, which in my opinion, was the only noteworthy storm this year in terms of strength. However, it still didn't make it to major hurricane status (even though I think in the post-tropical re-analysis it would). However, it was far more interesting than the other storms. Of course, I feel for the victims of all storms this year, and do NOT get me wrong in that I enjoy landfalling storms or storms affecting anyone in ANY WAY.

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#287 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:44 pm

Area that models develop is mentioned.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#288 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 8:27 am

I have created a thread for this area in the Talkin' Tropics section, just to let you know if you're interested.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#289 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:15 pm

Image

Hurricane Kenneth was the strongest tropical cyclone observed in the East Pacific in the month of November
Strengthened to a category 4 on November 22, becoming the latest-forming major hurricane since satellite era and the most powerful late-season storm ever
Amazingly, in a La-nina year

Well it maybe hopeless for something like this to happen in 2013 but there can always be surprises :P
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#290 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:53 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Image

Hurricane Kenneth was the strongest tropical cyclone observed in the East Pacific in the month of November
Strengthened to a category 4 on November 22, becoming the latest-forming major hurricane since satellite era and the most powerful late-season storm ever
Amazingly, in a La-nina year

Well it maybe hopeless for something like this to happen in 2013 but there can always be surprises :P


Eh, Kenneth is a once in a lifetime storm IMO.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#291 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:23 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Image

Hurricane Kenneth was the strongest tropical cyclone observed in the East Pacific in the month of November
Strengthened to a category 4 on November 22, becoming the latest-forming major hurricane since satellite era and the most powerful late-season storm ever
Amazingly, in a La-nina year

Well it maybe hopeless for something like this to happen in 2013 but there can always be surprises :P


Eh, Kenneth is a once in a lifetime storm IMO.


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And remember, 2011 already had 4 Category 4s before Kenneth, including a near-record setting Category 4 in June. So even though that year had only 11 named storms, only one named storm, Fernanda, fell just short of hurricane strength (8E and 12E don't count in this comparison). This year, we can't even see one major hurricane for the entire season so far, and a lot of storms are short-lived and weak tropical storms. So I don't think we'll have a Kenneth-like storm this year, unless a MAJOR pattern change occurs. Until then, the season will likely remain at extremely low ACE levels.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#292 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:05 am

One invest in the open waters, but conditions could become unfavourable by next week. Very underactive season indeed.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#293 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:15 am

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE FORMATION POTENTIAL OF EASTERN
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

UPDATED...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#294 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:23 am

New area of interest will form in next few days.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#295 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:46 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 7 2013

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#296 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:54 pm

12Z ECMWF

Image
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#297 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:02 pm

I thought I was joking when I said this Pacific hurricane season would go without a major... :roll:
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#298 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:19 pm

This is acting like a La Nina season in the EPAC and an El Nino in the Atlantic. Very weird. Dry air is the key.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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#299 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:11 pm

Invest 94E is failing over 31°C waters. It was up to 80% in 48 hours yesterday, but has since been down to 50% in 48 hours. Likely would be a bust.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#300 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:42 pm

Anything new in the model runs? That's the only activity this year ...

:sadly:
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