#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:26 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.5N
172.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPARSE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY BROAD (~350 NM DIAMETER), ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLCC, WITH WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) INNER-CORE WINDS AND
STRONGER (20-25 KNOTS) WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. MULTIPLE
MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND LACK OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION PRODUCT
INDICATES A SLIGHTLY COLD-CORE SYSTEM WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER COOL (LESS THAN
26 DEGREE CELSIUS) SST CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FSU CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A SYMMETRIC
COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND THUS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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