WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

377
WTPQ31 PGUM 061530
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON DANAS (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232013
200 AM CHST MON OCT 7 2013

...TYPHOON DANAS HEADING FOR THE RYUKYU ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.3N 132.7E

ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF IWO TO ISLAND
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT 1020 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DANAS WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.7 EAST.

TYPHOON DANAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. DANAS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...THEN TURNS NORTH TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL TAKE DANAS THROUGH THE RYUKYU ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES. TYPHOON DANAS IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE BANDING HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW
INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI AS WELL AS IN A 061050Z SSMIS IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS AND TO
REFLECT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BEYOND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
RECURVE POLEWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN
ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY DANAS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS A STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW AND CROSS THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS ABOUT THE RECURVE POINT.
AT TAU 36 THERE IS A 90 NM SPREAD IN MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
(CONW) AND AT TAU 48 THERE IS 150 NM SPREAD IN CONW. THROUGH THE
RECURVE, EGRR IS THE WESTERN MOST OBJECTIVE AID AND CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE KOREA STRAIT AFTER TAU
48. ECMWF REMAINS THE EASTERN MOST OBJECTIVE AID AND INDICATES A
TRACK MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO NEAR TAU
48. IN VIEW OF THIS AND KNOWN HISTORICAL BIASES, THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW AFTER TAU
24 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

2013OCT06 153200 6.3 934.5 122.2 6.3 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 10.78 -70.54 EYE 25 IR 69.0 23.55 -132.30 COMBO MTSAT2 31.0

Current Intensity

Raw

eye continues to warm and clear...

[hurricanes1234]

Will this be a Category 3 or 4 at the next advisory?

[euro6208]

Will this be a Category 3 or 4 at the next advisory?

based on data and satellite, this is already a category 3 (at least 110 knots) and still strengthening...

you know what's worse? having no recon in this part of the world...

honestly though, this is really a weird typhoon as it is really really small for this part of the world...usually it is really large...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[hurricanes1234]

Will this be a Category 3 or 4 at the next advisory?

based on data and satellite, this is already a category 3 (at least 110 knots) and still strengthening...

you know what's worse? having no recon in this part of the world...

honestly though, this is really a weird typhoon as it is really really small for this part of the world...usually it is really large...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

Exactly! I was thinking that this morning. Typhoon force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center? That's really unique. And look at that perfect ring of deep convection and very distinct eye. Beautiful storm.

[hurricanes1234]

Not quite a Category 4 yet, but close to it. Major Typhoon Danas...

23W DANAS 131006 1800 24.0N 131.6E WPAC105 944

[hurricanes1234]

Best looking 105 knot storm I've ever seen.

[euro6208]

Best looking 105 knot storm I've ever seen.

wow! truly playing catchup...

2013OCT06 183200 6.5 929.9 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.01 -72.96 EYE 24 IR 75.0 24.22 -131.48 COMBO MTSAT2 32.1

Current Intensity

Raw

105 knots is really low....

this is at least 125 to 140 knots as eye continues to warm and convection continues to deepen around the eye... oh god...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[hurricanes1234]

Is the Best Track a bit conservative with storms? Because I'd agree that this probably looks like a moderate Category 4 at least, very cloud-free eye, perfect, thick ring of convection around it, and very rounded shape overall of a mature storm. I wonder if they'll go with an intensity stronger than Best Track.

Best looking 105 knot storm I've ever seen.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/2060/8to1.jpg

wow! truly playing catchup...

2013OCT06 183200 6.5 929.9 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.01 -72.96 EYE 24 IR 75.0 24.22 -131.48 COMBO MTSAT2 32.1

Current Intensity

Raw

105 knots is really low....

this is at least 125 to 140 knots as eye continues to warm and convection continues to deepen around the eye... oh god...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Extratropical94]

Well, JTWC has it at 105 knots as of 2100z.

[euro6208]

Is the Best Track a bit conservative with storms? Because I'd agree that this probably looks like a moderate Category 4 at least, very cloud-free eye, perfect, thick ring of convection around it, and very rounded shape overall of a mature storm. I wonder if they'll go with an intensity stronger than Best Track.

Best looking 105 knot storm I've ever seen.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/2060/8to1.jpg

wow! truly playing catchup...

2013OCT06 183200 6.5 929.9 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.01 -72.96 EYE 24 IR 75.0 24.22 -131.48 COMBO MTSAT2 32.1

Current Intensity

Raw

105 knots is really low....

this is at least 125 to 140 knots as eye continues to warm and convection continues to deepen around the eye... oh god...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

intensity is based on averages of dvorak numbers which does poorly on strong typhoons/hurricanes...the only way we can find out the real intensity is through recon but regular recon here ended in 1987 which is a blow to meteorology...it's all catchup...

in the atlantic side, you see many storms that look very disorganized, weak, sheared, naked swirls systems and have low dvorak numbers like karen but look, recon 80 percent of the time finds a stronger storm than what dvorak is saying...recon always lead the numbers...

imagine what recon will find in danas

[supercane4867]

Appears to be T6.5 based on that image, maybe subtract 0.5 due to rapid development

Likely a Cat 4 right now

[hurricanes1234]

So should we, in this instance, treat it as a case where the storm is possibly a Category 4 typhoon, but its just not being made official, at least yet? And also, how correct are those raw T#s, and current intensity analysis, etc? Because if they're relatively correct, we can say that we likely have nearly a Category 5, just it's not official. The last one euro6208 posted had the intensity as 127 knots, and the pressure as 929.9 mbar, which is quite a strong C4. Is the 127 knot analysis conservative/generous? Thanks.

[StormingB81]

Personnel in Okinawa told to stay home tomorrow

[supercane4867]

So should we, in this instance, treat it as a case where the storm is possibly a Category 4 typhoon, but its just not being made official, at least yet? And also, how correct are those raw T#s, and current intensity analysis, etc? Because if they're relatively correct, we can say that we likely have nearly a Category 5, just it's not official. The last one euro6208 posted had the intensity as 127 knots, and the pressure as 929.9 mbar, which is quite a strong C4. Is the 127 knot analysis conservative/generous? Thanks.

Danas should be classified as a strong Cat 4 if can sustain its strength, right now the windspeed needs sometime to catch up with satellite presentation

[hurricanes1234]

I can't help but post numerous pictures of this startling typhoon, I am sure it WILL be upgraded very soon. Just look at this. Can't wait to see visible images.

IR UNENHANCED...


AVN (truly amazing)...


I think this looks better than all the typhoons here so far, including Usagi, and it's looking better each frame with its strikingly annular structure. Amazing is all I have to say.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Just gorgeous. Great view from every angle.

[Dave C]

seemed to jog briefly nw but now more wnw.Starting to show up nicely on JMA radar site. Maybe you guys could post some radars, I'm not able to do so myself Thanks!

[Caribwxgirl]

Truly beautiful looking storm. I hope all who May be in its path stay safe.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Dose anyone know any other sites I can get TC imageary from, other the the NRL and FNMOC pages?

Typhoon Danas