'CaneFreak wrote:TCFA issued
WTIO21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 96.0E TO 14.3N 89.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 95.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
98.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN STEADILY IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS
HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
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