EPAC: NARDA - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Peak of 70 mph! Maybe this will become a hurricane after all.

[Yellow Evan]

Peak of 70 mph! Maybe this will become a hurricane after all.

I agree that it has a chance. Looks better than Karen ever did.

[hurricanes1234]

Peak of 70 mph! Maybe this will become a hurricane after all.

I agree that it has a chance. Looks better than Karen ever did.

That's for sure!

[hurricanes1234]

Looking like a TS anybody?

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to TS Narda.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NARDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 119.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A
CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA.
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR
FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD
PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

NARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME
QUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION
OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO
ITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED
UP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM
STALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A
BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THOSE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[hurricanes1234]

Now a TS! And forecast raises peak to a hurricane!!!

[Yellow Evan]

Now a TS! And forecast raises peak to a hurricane!!!

Mind settling down a little bit? Still a kinda generic EPAC system, though I like October EPAC hurricanes, that form in the old MDR, we don't know for sure, it's gonna become one.

[HURAKAN]

Narda \n(a)-rda, nar-da\ as a girl's name is of Latin origin, and the meaning of Narda is "scented ointment".

weird name!

[hurricanes1234]

Now a TS! And forecast raises peak to a hurricane!!!

Mind settling down a little bit? Still a kinda generic EPAC system, though I like October EPAC hurricanes, that form in the old MDR, we don't know for sure, it's gonna become one.

I still like the sound of a minimal fish hurricane, after all, we haven't seen one in a while here!

[hurricanes1234]

Convection is increasing in intensity and coverage, and it's diurnal minimum. Can't wait for diurnal maximum.

[hurricanes1234]

45 mph!

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070840
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS BEEN GETTING MORE
ORGANIZED. A LONG CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND CONNECTS TO AN INNER RING OF CONVECTION THAT IS
OPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND
T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...AS WELL AS ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT.
EASTERLY SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NARDA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. OCEAN WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM AT AROUND 28C...AND THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH LIE AT THE UPPER
RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD
CAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRAJECTORY
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STEERING PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST...CAUSING
NARDA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
STRONGER CYCLONE THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING ADVECTED MORE
QUICKLY TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOTION BETWEEN
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NOAA FIM MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 13.2N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[supercane4867]

...NARDA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 14.0°N 122.5°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 122.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

NARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE
45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.
NARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING
WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS
PREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF.

NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
NARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON. IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN
STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES
COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND
NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY
SENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE
LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR
SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[supercane4867]

TXPZ22 KNES 071225
TCSENP

A. 14E (NARDA)

B. 07/1200Z

C. 13.7N

D. 121.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...NARDA LOOKING LIKE ITS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF AN EYE.
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING OVER .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0912Z 13.4N 121.0W TMI


...KIBLER

[hurricanes1234]

I see convection is warming a little? Does that mean anything?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

AFTER INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...NARDA APPEARS
TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A 1625 UTC
SSMI/S PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
HAS NOT BEEN DEGRADED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 55 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

SATELLITE FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...AND MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT
285/13. NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT NEARS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HAVE LESS
EFFECT ON NARDA WHILE IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT PASSES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY
OF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LURKING TO THE
NORTHWEST...THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW
NARDA TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE U.S.
WEST COAST TROUGH AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
WITH THE SHEAR BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY CAUSING NARDA TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM...BUT HIGHER THAN THE
REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

Please don't tell me that Narda peaked this morning when I wasn't home to get any satellite pictures.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I see convection is warming a little? Does that mean anything?

Stable air is wrapping into the circulation. Note the stratocumulus clouds to the northwest.

Narda was probably near hurricane intensity this morning but has since weakened a little.

[hurricanes1234]

I see convection is warming a little? Does that mean anything?

Stable air is wrapping into the circulation. Note the stratocumulus clouds to the northwest.

Narda was probably near hurricane intensity this morning but has since weakened a little.

I would really be disappointed if this stops Narda from attaining hurricane strength.