EPAC: NARDA - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

I can't believe this. Just this morning an eye was forming, now look at how weak the convection is. It's really puzzling to me what's wrong with this season. If it isn't wind shear or cold waters, which have been the prime inhibitors, it MUST be dry air. I'd indeed be disappointed if dry air wins!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 125.0W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS
SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A
T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS
A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER
THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C
SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE
MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT
THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED
TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE THERAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[hurricanes1234]

One last opportunity ... will it make good use of it or will it blow it? Find out tomorrow at 2:00 AM PDT (well, that would be my final answer as to whether it becomes a hurricane or not). Extremely La Niña like behaviour.

[brunota2003]

So, the East Pacific is acting like it is La Nina, and the Atlantic is acting like it is an El Nino year...so bizarre.

[tolakram]

Another one bites the dust ....

...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080840
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL
55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM SAB HAS
FALLEN TO 35 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON
ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE AROUND 45 KT. BASED
ON THESE NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...BUT
THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS REQUIRED IN THIS
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR
ANOTHER 36 HOURS...NARDA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT DUE TO A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES
WESTWARD...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NARDA
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO
DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY
STRENGTHENING. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS LOW...BUT THEN SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TO REMNANT
LOW STATUS BY DAY 4.

NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND
ITS CURRENT MOTION IS 290/11 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...LEAVING NARDA IN A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AND BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...NARDA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
ACCELERATE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.3N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[hurricanes1234]

Just goes to show how absolutely pathetic this season is, we can't even get a minimal hurricane. I'm done with Narda, unless something unexpected happens. She can do whatever she wants now, not like she's doing anything good anyway. I can't believe I wasted my time with this 2013 hurricane season garbage, just a small bunch of weak and short-lived storms that struggled and added negligible amounts to the already record low ACE levels. The only hurricanes were Category 1 hurricanes, except for Henriette. Many of those hurricanes ended up being sheared apart or destroyed otherwise, upon attaining that strength. Completely surreal.

[hurricanes1234]

Down to 45 mph. In any normal October, this would have easily become at least a 75 mph hurricane in those warm tropical waters, but because the slogan of 2013 is "underachieve", it suddenly stopped at 65 mph and weakened abruptly thereafter. Same thing with Gil earlier this year, rapidly intensified to hurricane status, but somehow weakened inexplicably after 85 mph.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH COULD BE
GENEROUS. DRY AIR ALOFT...INCREASING WIND SHEAR...AND MARGINAL
SSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NARDA. THE NHC WIND FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/11. THE STORM
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW
MUCH IT SLOWS DOWN BY EITHER BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ...LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST...OR STAYING SEPARATE...LIKE THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z 16.6N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 16.4N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

Great joke! I was actually going to post that here, but I forgot. And it's very true as well, the storm is really nada right now.

[Yellow Evan]

Just goes to show how absolutely pathetic this season is, we can't even get a minimal hurricane. I'm done with Narda, unless something unexpected happens. She can do whatever she wants now, not like she's doing anything good anyway. I can't believe I wasted my time with this 2013 hurricane season garbage, just a small bunch of weak and short-lived storms that struggled and added negligible amounts to the already record low ACE levels. The only hurricanes were Category 1 hurricanes, except for Henriette. Many of those hurricanes ended up being sheared apart or destroyed otherwise, upon attaining that strength. Completely surreal.

Well, all storms die at some point. Most present-era EPAC storm's get sheared apart or in Narda's case, lose convection.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION
MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY
WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS
SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT
THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.

NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.

NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

Look at all that dry air and stratocumulus clouds.

[cycloneye]

Adios!


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT.
ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY
GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE
AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanes1234]

What a joke.