WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

SSD FLOATER



tons of model support in developing a strong typhoon...the first of twin typhoons...

Next name: Nari...

91WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-140N-1344E

[dexterlabio]

Could this be the same area the Euro is hinting next TC development? Euro was consistent with the timing and track while the GFS was kinda flip flopping on this one.

[dexterlabio]

TCFA is out! And also by the looks of it, I bet this one's gonna be named Nari first over the other system near Guam.....


WTPN21 PGTW 080800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 133.1E TO 14.7N 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
132.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
135.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS
OVER AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A RECENT 080308Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS ELONGATED ALONG
THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CIRCULATION, BUT WITH RAIN-FLAGGED STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090800Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

A lot of model support for this right now. Euro, CMC, NOGAPS and GFS have similar forecast tracks though GFS has it farther north.

ECMWF






GFS, NAVGEM, CMC

[Sanibel]

The action is over here in the West Pacific. Like a cyclone machine.

[euro6208]

TCFA is out! And also by the looks of it, I bet this one's gonna be named Nari first over the other system near Guam.....

[euro6208]

20131008 0832 13.6 -131.8 T1.0/1.0 91W 91W

[dexterlabio]

This is now a tropical depression according to JMA and expected to become TS Nari within the next 24 hours. Also, PAGASA upgraded it into a TD and was locally named 'Santi'.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080752ZOCT2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.3N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.1N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 130.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
575 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z
AND 092100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 080800Z OCT 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 080800). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
23W (DANAS) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
575 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 081558Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND A
081828Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HWRF, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON. HWRF IS THE SOLE OUTLIER AND
INDICATES AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36, WHICH IS DEEMED UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS.
THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 24W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
TD 24W SHOULD TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR. BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Terrible year for the Philippines. TC's seem to get attracted to this area all year every year.

Nonstop.

[HurricaneBill]

Terrible year for the Philippines. TC's seem to get attracted to this area all year every year.

Nonstop.

Unfortunately, September through December is when powerful typhoons tend to strike the Philippines.

[ManilaTC]

JTWC tracks now much more south than last forecast... Reminds me of Santi of 2009, same name-same track?

May pass Central Luzon/South Luzon/Metro Manila area though.

[dexterlabio]

Oh jeez....I still remember 'Santi' in 2009. If I'm not mistaken, its international name is Mirinae, a Cat2 typhoon. It struck Manila before dawn and I personally experienced the brunt of its wind. How time flies....


And yes, the forecast track looks very similar to the previous 'Santi'.

[ManilaTC]

This OceanSat pass is showing 30-35 kt winds with flagged 50kt winds to the west...

Santi should become TROPICAL STORM NARI on the next advisory

[RobWESTPACWX]

So anyone else notice JTWC has it strengthen to a stronger Typhoon while it is over the middle of Luzon?

[HURAKAN]

So anyone else notice JTWC has it strengthen to a stronger Typhoon while it is over the middle of Luzon?

Meaning that it will be stronger before landfall.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Keeping a very close eye on this one.

I remember filming 2009's Santi in Manila with Jim Edds, it was falling apart at landfall and passed over the city as a tropical storm. Manila got lucky but it still packed a punch.

[RobWESTPACWX]

So anyone else notice JTWC has it strengthen to a stronger Typhoon while it is over the middle of Luzon?

Meaning that it will be stronger before landfall.

HURAKAN, your logic is priceless! Why did I not figure that out. Thanks

[HURAKAN]

So anyone else notice JTWC has it strengthen to a stronger Typhoon while it is over the middle of Luzon?

Meaning that it will be stronger before landfall.

HURAKAN, your logic is priceless! Why did I not figure that out. Thanks

LOL .. I just noticed that there was 1 whole day between both positions, so further intensification is very likely before landfall.