EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
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201310081913
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013100818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013100718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 943W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2013100806, , BEST, 0, 106N, 962W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2013100812, , BEST, 0, 109N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 100, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2013100818, , BEST, 0, 112N, 978W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,




Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115817&hilit=&p=2351149#p2351149

[supercane4867]

ECMWF has been consistently showing a TS heading for Mexico

[hurricanes1234]

Another Narda anybody?

[cycloneye]

First guidance plots.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1914 UTC TUE OCT 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20131008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131008 1800 131009 0600 131009 1800 131010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 97.8W 11.7N 99.2W 12.2N 100.6W 12.9N 101.8W
BAMD 11.2N 97.8W 11.7N 99.2W 12.3N 100.6W 12.7N 101.9W
BAMM 11.2N 97.8W 11.9N 99.1W 12.5N 100.1W 13.1N 100.8W
LBAR 11.2N 97.8W 11.9N 99.1W 12.8N 100.7W 13.6N 102.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131010 1800 131011 1800 131012 1800 131013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 102.8W 14.0N 104.8W 15.5N 107.3W 17.8N 110.0W
BAMD 13.1N 103.3W 13.8N 106.5W 15.5N 109.8W 18.5N 112.1W
BAMM 13.5N 101.5W 14.2N 103.9W 16.0N 107.1W 19.2N 110.2W
LBAR 14.4N 104.5W 16.3N 108.5W 18.0N 111.0W 21.8N 111.6W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 70KTS 67KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 70KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 97.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 96.2W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 94.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[hurricanes1234]

70 knots.
Even 70 knots seems unrealistic now. But we will see...

[cycloneye]

Up to 80% in five days


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

Yet again, for some reason, I'm interested to see what this has to offer. After all, based on the TWO, it should be in favourable conditions at least for another 4 days or so, which is ample time for development. It's already developing more convection around a center. Will this be a threat to land?

[supercane4867]

30/80

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

40/80

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[zeehag]

these bring to us interesting and wet weather..i wish this one well.

[supercane4867]

60/90

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Could be renumbered by tonight or early tomorrow.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't know if it's just my eyes, but I think this is getting better organised for sure. Not sure of whether it will make landfall or not.

[cycloneye]

80%/90%


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Oh yes ... a renumber seems imminent now. So it wasn't just my eyes, this thing is almost a tropical cyclone.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 092130
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 98.5W TO 17.4N 105.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 092100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 100.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 102130Z.
//

[hurricanes1234]

Diurnal minimum is affecting the convection a little. This seems to be a strong system, though, so it shouldn't affect it too much.

[supercane4867]

T2.0/30kt from TAFB

EP, 94, 201310092345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1390N, 10120W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, WB, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, 0.3 BANDING =DT=FT=MET = 2.0. PAT STILL LOOKS TOO R

[Yellow Evan]

A little surprised at no upgrade.

[HURAKAN]

A little surprised at no upgrade.

doesn't have well-organized convection at the moment