Model Rundown:
All the major models show this area getting better organized in the next several days then followed by gradual weakening after 50W and some dissipate as it reaches the islands and 60W. Even the conservative UKmet has a strong vorticity in 72hrs.
The CMC is the outlier on both track and strength which is not a surprise considering its tendancy to overhype systems. It shows a strong system hitting the weakness at 40W and recurving.
I think it is worth watching because it is becoming more likely that it will make it across the basin and reach the islands. What will be left will be the question, but we are talking beyond 7 days and we all know how bad the models have been handling intensity this year.
12z

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