2013 TCR's

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

2013 TCR's

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 7:15 pm

They have a new look, more formal design this year. Alvin is the first one out.

Atlantic

Andrea (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012013_Andrea.pdf
Barry (40 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022013_Barry.pdf
Chantal (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032013_Chantal.pdf
Dorian (50 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042013_Dorian.pdf
Erin (40 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052013_Erin.pdf
Fernand (50 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062013_Fernand.pdf
Gabrielle (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072013_Gabrielle.pdf
Eight (30 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082013_Eight.pdf
Humberto (80 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092013_Humberto.pdf
Ingrid (75 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102013_Ingrid.pdf
Jerry (45 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112013_Jerry.pdf
Karen (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122013_Karen.pdf
Lorenzo (45 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132013_Lorenzo.pdf
Melissa (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142013_Melissa.pdf
Unnamed SS (45 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152013_Unnamed.pdf

Eastern Pacific

Alvin (50 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012013_Alvin.pdf
Barbara (70 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022013_Barbara.pdf
Cosme (75 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032013_Cosme.pdf
Dalila (70 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042013_Dalila.pdf
Erick (70 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052013_Erick.pdf
Flossie (60 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062013_Flossie.pdf
Gil (75 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072013_Gil.pdf
Henriette (90 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082013_Henriette.pdf
Ivo (40 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092013_Ivo.pdf
Juliette (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102013_Juliette.pdf
Kiko (65 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112013_Kiko.pdf
Lorena (45 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122013_Lorena.pdf
Manuel (65 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132013_Manuel.pdf
Narda (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142013_Narda.pdf
Octave (55 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152013_Octave.pdf
Priscilla (40 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162013_Priscilla.pdf
Raymond (110 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172013_Raymond.pdf
Sonia (40 kt) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182013_Sonia.pdf

Central Pacific

Pewa
Unawa
Three-C

Color code: Depression - Storm - Hurricane - Major Hurricane
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:23 pm, edited 22 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 07, 2013 7:53 pm

Looks really cool!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1486
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: 2013 TCR's

#3 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 07, 2013 8:41 pm

I really REALLY like the new formatting!!!
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#4 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 07, 2013 9:02 pm

I love the modernization!
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:02 pm

It looks like it could fit in a book or magazine! No longer just looks like a school paper...
0 likes   

User avatar
thetruesms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 844
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
Location: Tallahasee, FL
Contact:

#6 Postby thetruesms » Fri Aug 09, 2013 7:02 pm

Eh, it looks nice and all, but it's just a different wrapping on the same report, not that big a deal. :buzzkill: The old format was very much like a manuscript submission for a journal, now they're just putting more of the journal/magazine-like polish on it.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: 2013 TCR's

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:57 am

0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:52 am

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:10 pm

0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:01 pm

I'd have raised Andrea's peak intensity to 60 kt at 1200Z, based on the SFMR of 55 kt and 71 kt FL winds (supporting 57 kt at the surface) being after the satellite and radar signature weakened. There was no Recon at 1200Z.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145356
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2013 TCR's

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:01 pm

Hurricane Cosme report is up. The peak intensity was 75kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032013_Cosme.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:06 pm

Dorian and Erin now out. The shutdown didn't affect them.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145356
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2013 TCR's

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:07 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:13 pm

A few changes I would make:

Based on the ASCAT passes and resolution, I would have increased the peak intensity on Dorian to 55 kt (supported by T3.5 observations), and also made it a tropical storm at 35 kt in the regenesis on August 3 (also supported by the surface obs at the end - note the X's). Erin seems reasonable based on the ship report.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:57 am

Chantal now out. Peak intensity 55 kt.

I'd have bumped it to 60 kt given the surface data and likelihood stronger winds were ongoing over water that were not measured.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: 2013 TCR's

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 09, 2013 3:10 pm

I just hope when Henriette's TCR eventually comes out, they raise its intensity or lower its pressure. It would be nice to know that despite 2013's inactivity, Henriette would have been a major hurricane. :)
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2013 TCR's

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:18 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I just hope when Henriette's TCR eventually comes out, they raise its intensity or lower its pressure. It would be nice to know that despite 2013's inactivity, Henriette would have been a major hurricane. :)


I also think Humberto might have been a bit stronger, perhaps 80 or 85 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:51 pm

On the TCR, Chantal is the fastest moving tropical cyclone in the deep Atlantic in the satellite era.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#19 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:50 pm

Tropical Storm Barry report is now up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022013_Barry.pdf

-Andrew92
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: 2013 TCR's

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:08 pm

Come on Henriette and Humberto! We are very interested to see your TCRs! :ggreen:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], MarioProtVI and 33 guests