2013 WPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

Could this year become the first since 1993 for PAGASA to use their auxiliary name list?
With SANTI named, they've already used up 19 of the 25 names available and six more depressions in the PAGASA AOR in almost three remaining months is definitely not out of the realm of possibilities.

[euro6208]

euro and gfs continue to show a very active pattern with 4-5 TC developing

[dexterlabio]

The slow-moving MJO wave over WPAC is causing all this uptick. It all started with Usagi.


Even though future Nari and Wipha are still brewing, models continue to show something more in the coming weeks.

[euro6208]

active phrase continues as the enhanced convection associated with the MJO remains stationary in our area...

[hurricanes1234]

Wait, is the favourable MJO phase moving towards the ePac? I see a red circle in the Pacific where 15E would soon form.

[dexterlabio]

^the MJO is still sitting well on WPAC, but majority of the models are indicating an eastward propagation and is likely to reach EPAC by the 23rd. GFS though has the pulse stationary for the coming days but personally it doesn't have a good handle on MJO this year. Climatology supports the arrival of MJO in the Western Hemisphere by the end of October...see last year's Sandy.



Going back to WPAC, GFS seems very aggressive after Nari and Wipha as it keeps showing more tropical cyclones up to the end of the month.

[hurricanes1234]

^the MJO is still sitting well on WPAC, but majority of the models are indicating an eastward propagation and is likely to reach EPAC by the 23rd. GFS though has the pulse stationary for the coming days but personally it doesn't have a good handle on MJO this year. Climatology supports the arrival of MJO in the Western Hemisphere by the end of October...see last year's Sandy.



Going back to WPAC, GFS seems very aggressive after Nari and Wipha as it keeps showing more tropical cyclones up to the end of the month.

So the EPAC could possibly see a slight period of increased activity starting now through late October? If so, it all began with Narda.

[Meow]

20W is Wutip, but JMA's number is 1321, so 21st storm
21W is Sepat, but JMA's number is 1322, so 22nd storm
22W is Fitow, but JMA's number is 1323, so 23rd storm

Things can get quite confusing with three storms at a time and one agency one number behind the other one.

They do understand. They just do not want to respect the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[Hurricane_Luis]

20W is Wutip, but JMA's number is 1321, so 21st storm
21W is Sepat, but JMA's number is 1322, so 22nd storm
22W is Fitow, but JMA's number is 1323, so 23rd storm

Things can get quite confusing with three storms at a time and one agency one number behind the other one.

They do understand. They just do not want to respect the Japan Meteorological Agency.

But the RSMC for the WPAC is the JMA, so we should listen to them, even if sometimes their Intensity's and forecasts are sometimes very wrong.

[Extratropical94]

20W is Wutip, but JMA's number is 1321, so 21st storm
21W is Sepat, but JMA's number is 1322, so 22nd storm
22W is Fitow, but JMA's number is 1323, so 23rd storm

Things can get quite confusing with three storms at a time and one agency one number behind the other one.

They do understand. They just do not want to respect the Japan Meteorological Agency.

But the RSMC for the WPAC is the JMA, so we should listen to them, even if sometimes their Intensity's and forecasts are sometimes very wrong.

Exactly.

There's nothing wrong with looking at other agencies like the JTWC to compare data and get (different) opinions (actually that's quite helpful and sometimes essential, for instance in the IMD's AOR), but when it comes to statistics, numbers and official facts, it's solely the JMA that should be considered.

By the way, here are the latest numbers of the 2013 season compared to other seasons at the same date (October 10), STY numbers are unofficial:

EDIT: I just saw that Nari has been upgraded to a typhoon, so it's #7.
And the TD near Guam (JTWC: 25W) is now TS Wipha, so #26.

2013 >> 41 TD/26 TS/7 TY/2 STY

2012 >> 30 TD/21 TS/12 TY/3 STY

2011 >> 33 TD/19 TS/8 TY/4 STY

2010 >> 23 TD/12 TS/5 TY/0 STY

2009 >> 31 TD/19 TS/10 TY/3 STY

[euro6208]

Nari now the 5th Major typhoon of the season +100 knots...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wipha now the 8th Typhoon of the 2013 Season.
In August we thought we were only going to have 2 typhoons.

[euro6208]

very active phrase continues as euro forecast another strong typhoon aiming for the southern japanese islands...note another area to it's southeast...

Next names: Francisco and Lekima

[euro6208]

gfs now on board with euro on developing francisco and lekima on latest run...

[euro6208]

good vorticity of soon to be Francisco taking shape east of the mariana islands...

[euro6208]

*Francisco* forecast to pass over guam and rapidly intensify in the philippine sea...bad scenario for japan...

Latest run has pressure down to 961 mb...likely could get stronger...

[euro6208]

93W Thread now up for area near guam...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

euro and gfs now developing future powerful typhoon lekima that develops southeast of guam and takes a northwest track towards the northern marianas...

very active...

[Meow]

JMA upgraded Man-yi to a typhoon in RSMC best track data. So now there are officially 9 typhoons in 2013.

http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/warning/20 ... 6t050000z/