BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[dexterlabio]

This is NO way below hurricane/typhoon strength with that eye. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a major hurricane-equivalent system in the Indian Ocean. But I have a really bad feeling about this making landfall in India for some reasons...

[cycloneye]

I can't believe that JTWC still has it below 65kts at 00z Best Track.

02B PHAILIN 131010 0000 14.4N 91.3E IO 55 982

[RL3AO]

IMD showing a current intensity of 70 km/hr. I'd like to give you my thoughts on this, but I would be breaking our rule about comments on "professional" mets.

[Alyono]

I'll state the truth, neither JTWC nor IMD have a handle on the intensity of this system. Not sure what the Dvorak analyst at JT is looking at. This is at least a 4.0. very clear cut

[RL3AO]

I'll state the truth, neither JTWC nor IMD have a handle on the intensity of this system. Not sure what the Dvorak analyst at JT is looking at. This is at least a 4.0. very clear cut

They are too slow moving away from curved banding into embedded center. Then by the time the eye finally appears, it takes them time to catch up because of constraints because they were too low to begin with. At least thats something I've noticed this year.

[RL3AO]

Expanding on my observation of JTWC struggling with quickly intensifying systems.

Assume this continues to intensify and we have a clear DT of 6.0 in 24 hours.

Since JTWC is already behind the ball right now at 3.5, without breaking constraints they can't go past 5.0 in 24 hours. If they were seeing what the more experienced guys at SAB were seeing with a current 4.5, then going a 6.0 by this time tomorrow would require no breaking of constraints and would allow them to keep up intensity wise.

I think its their failure to accurately assess the strong storm/weak typhoon (or not typhoon in this case) that causes them to consistently be behind until these RI storms begin to peak or slow down in intensification.

[Alyono]

Expanding on my observation of JTWC struggling with quickly intensifying systems.

Assume this continues to intensify and we have a clear DT of 6.0 in 24 hours.

Since JTWC is already behind the ball right now at 3.5, without breaking constraints they can't go past 5.0 in 24 hours. If they were seeing what the more experienced guys at SAB were seeing with a current 4.5, then going a 6.0 by this time tomorrow would require no breaking of constraints and would allow them to keep up intensity wise.

I think its their failure to accurately assess the strong storm/weak typhoon (or not typhoon in this case) that causes them to consistently be behind until these RI storms begin to peak or slow down in intensification.

that is their big problem... they have no idea as to when they should be breaking constraints. Also, the JT forecasters need to look at ALL Dvoraks, not just their own

[CrazyC83]

If only there was Recon in that part of the world...that would solve a lot of mysteries.

[Alyono]

If only there was Recon in that part of the world...that would solve a lot of mysteries.

no confidence IMO would use the data

[Meow]

Phailin may become the most impressive storm in this basin since Giri in 2010.

[Meow]

The visible eye of Phailin is forming right now.

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave, very impressive

[euro6208]

intensity way off as phailin continues to rapidly intensify!

REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 092324Z SSMI/S
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING
TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE NORTHEAST.
TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN AS
IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ADDITION TO WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL, TS PAHILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE RUGGED
INDIAN TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. //
NNNN

JTWC ADT now showing 5.0- 90 knots...

[HURAKAN]

latest visible image

[stormkite]

Still intensifying

[euro6208]

very much like a wpac system with intense and expanding yet weaker convection around an increasingly well defined eye in association with rapid intensification...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Is it me or does India Meteorological Department update there Track randomly? It seems it goes up at different times and over the course of 6-12 hours between each update. Right now the newest one is from 00UTC>

[Meow]

IMD has upgraded Phailin to a severe cyclonic storm.



The eye is very clear right now.

[stormkite]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2013 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 15:07:19 N Lon : 90:35:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.4mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 68km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.3 degrees
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last look it was at vmax 5.7

2013OCT10 083000 5.6 955.4 104.6 5.6 6.0 6.2 1.0T/6hr OFF OFF -20.16 -77.45 EYE -99 IR 61.0 15.12 -90.60 COMBO MET7 42.3
2013OCT10 090000 5.7 953.3 107.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -30.06 -76.19 EYE -99 IR 61.0 15.10 -90.70 FCST MET7 42.4
pressure drop

[jaguarjace]

Full Disk view.