WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

It looks scarier actually by the minute..small and really compact, it resembles a grenade....wait, is that an eye trying to form?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

[ManilaTC]

There is a microwave eye now forming. Looks like it will explode overnight, and is now moving flat out west over the last 3 hours or so... lets see if it will keep above 15N!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013WP24/AMSUSR89/2013WP24_AMSUSR89_201310100544.GIF

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That was fast. Now a typhoon!
WTPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.9N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.5N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 126.1E.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

it's blowing up a huge CDO right now though I can't clearly see what direction it is now going. For sometime I though it was moving northwest. Anyway, I agree it looks like an explosive intensification is underway, and the question is will it make past Cat2?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

latest LLCC position is over rota or north of guam...

Pressure at Anderson AFB and Guam Airport at 998 and 999 and decreasing...

winds coming out from the south and west at 5 and 7 mph...

Obs from Rota showing 999mb with winds coming out from the south at 12 gusting to 24 mph...

Isn't that 92W?

[oaba09]

it's blowing up a huge CDO right now though I can't clearly see what direction it is now going. For sometime I though it was moving northwest. Anyway, I agree it looks like an explosive intensification is underway, and the question is will it make past Cat2?

The CDO is definitely making it tough to track the movement
Based on JMA's latest, it seems to be W to WNW at the moment



STS 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 09:35 UTC, 10 October 2013

<Analyses at 10/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 11/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E118°40'(118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E114°20'(114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[mrbagyo]

Nari wants to see...
microwave eye beginning to form...
wow...the tropics is very active this October.
very strong storms tend to form during October( Northern Hemisphere)...
eg. Megi, Zeb, Tip, Wilma, Mitch and many more...can't list them all.

[mrbagyo]

there is an NBA preseason game here in the Philippines tonight but I'm more interested with the progress of NARI.. haha

[euro6208]

latest LLCC position is over rota or north of guam...

Pressure at Anderson AFB and Guam Airport at 998 and 999 and decreasing...

winds coming out from the south and west at 5 and 7 mph...

Obs from Rota showing 999mb with winds coming out from the south at 12 gusting to 24 mph...

Isn't that 92W?

oops my bad lol...

[euro6208]

now the 11th typhoon of the season...

we are off to a very active ending...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ill leave it, but you do realize as of right now this is not a Typhoon (technically) JTWC the US Military not the RSMC has it. JMA still says Severe Tropical Storm.

I agree though for all intents and purposes it is a TY now though.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[RobWESTPACWX]

now the 11th typhoon of the season...

we are off to a very active ending...

11? This will be 7. Do admit it is active though. Nari is the 25th named storm of 2013. If this was they Atlantic I think we would be on letter D in the greek alphabet.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SYMMETRIC AND CONSOLIDATED. A 100613Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND
AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS ENHANCING
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TY NARI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
85 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36.
ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, TY NARI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE PERSISTENT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE RESUME.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
HUE, VIETNAM. BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 75kts.

24W NARI 131010 1200 15.9N 126.0E WPAC 75 967

[dexterlabio]

15.3 (JMA) vs. 15.6 (PAGASA) vs. 15.9 (JTWC)...where is the center?

[cycloneye]

15:00 UTC warning track.

[oaba09]

JTWC and JMA have 2 different center locations as of 12 UTC....JMA has it at 15.3 and 126.1 while JTWC has it at 15.9 and 126.0...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AS WELL AS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SYMMETRIC AND CONSOLIDATED. A 101141Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AS WELL AS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND
AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS ENHANCING
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TY NARI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
85 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36.
ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, TY NARI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE PERSISTENT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE RESUME.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
HUE, VIETNAM. BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

15.3 (JMA) vs. 15.6 (PAGASA) vs. 15.9 (JTWC)...where is the center?

SSD agrees with JTWC...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I can understand the difference in the center locations from the two agencies, it looks like the center relocated this evening. I show it in this video.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvoGFE4gsrA[/youtube]