BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[CrazyC83]

I would have to agree, probably would have gone about 125 kt personally, accounting for the higher ADT.

[supercane4867]

JTWC finally wakes up


TPIO10 PGTW 101334
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 15.3N
D. 90.1E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W (+1.0
ADJUSTMENT CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT WAS 6.0; PT WAS 4.0. DBO
PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS). CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE OF 2.5 IN 24HRS) AND (PT WITHIN 1.0 OF MET) WERE BROKEN
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORM.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
 10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
 LONG

[Macrocane]

Impressive pace of intensification and impressive structure, I hope India take all the necessary preparations.

[Alyono]

I would have to agree, probably would have gone about 125 kt personally, accounting for the higher ADT.

I also did an estimate on microwave and also had a 6.0 with the microwave

[Grifforzer]

Dvorak 4.5 from IMD for 1730 PM advisory that will be released at 2100 PM IST

around 75-85 knots likely mentioned in that advisory.

[Alyono]

Dvorak 4.5 from IMD for 1730 PM advisory that will be released at 2100 PM IST

around 75-85 knots likely mentioned in that advisory.

what satellite imagery are they looking at? To be 1.5 T numbers off is borderline lacking of skill at the Dvorak technique

[supercane4867]

Very impressive structure



Won't be suprised if Phailin is nearing Cat 5 threshold

[CrazyC83]

It looks like about a T6.5 to me.

I wonder if the outer bands are causing a significant storm surge in the Irrawaddy Delta? That was the same area that was obliterated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008.

[supercane4867]

135kt at landfall


WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.6N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---

Likely an epic natural disaster

[CrazyC83]

The wind field looks a lot larger than the JTWC analysis as well...that could increase the storm surge. Strong bands (with perhaps TS winds) extend all the way back into Myanmar.

[supercane4867]

TPIO10 PGTW 101517

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 15.5N

D. 89.9E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG (+0.5
ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT WAS 6.5; MET WAS
4.5. DBO PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS).
CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 2.5 IN 24HRS) AND (MET WITHIN 1.0 OF DT)
WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS


LONG

[euro6208]

wow very impressive...

has the looks of a category 5 cyclone right now...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and IMD products.

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 02B HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED FROM 4.0 AT 10/00Z TO 6.0 AT
10/12Z. THE EIR INDICATES A WARM SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE WITH
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM COLD-MEDIUM-GREY TO
COLD-DARK-GREY. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS TIGHTENED AS
EVIDENT IN A 101323Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY DUE TO THE RI EVENT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN AS IT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC
PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE RUGGED INDIAN
TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

1730 PM IST, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman sea islands and area between lat 13.0N to 16.5N and long 88.0E to 92.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Phailin central pressure is 976 hPa

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days

Outlook forecast from numerical weather prediction models

12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

[Grifforzer]

Dvorak 4.5 from IMD for 1730 PM advisory that will be released at 2100 PM IST

around 75-85 knots likely mentioned in that advisory.

what satellite imagery are they looking at? To be 1.5 T numbers off is borderline lacking of skill at the Dvorak technique

The Kalpana-1 radar. Like I stated it was from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) update

[Extratropical94]

Clearly, the IMD is failin' at Phailin
Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Alyono]

I'd advise anyone living in India to IGNORE the IMD. They are not providing accurate information at all on this system.

[Grifforzer]

I'd advise anyone living in India to IGNORE the IMD. They are not providing accurate information at all on this system.

they'll catch up to the JTWC

2013OCT10 153000 4.9 956.4 +0.0 87.4 4.9 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -11.36 -80.64 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.55 -89.76

that is from ADT New Delphi

T5.0 is 90 knots (3 mins)

[euro6208]

I'd advise anyone living in India to IGNORE the IMD. They are not providing accurate information at all on this system

too bad mostly all of them probrably doesn't know storm2k or any U.S based websites exist and they rely on indian based websites that gets information on TC from IMD...

IMD suffers from strong cyclones...

[wxman57]

The wind field looks a lot larger than the JTWC analysis as well...that could increase the storm surge. Strong bands (with perhaps TS winds) extend all the way back into Myanmar.

Definitely, I'd put TS winds out to 160-180NM to the NE and hurricane force maybe 50-70NM.