EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

I would be shocked if this deteriorates from here, since it is having problems with convection. All a part of the most annoying year of 2013.

[cycloneye]

Down to 70%/80%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[supercane4867]

Another big BUST for the east pacific

[supercane4867]

Down to 50/60

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like this is done. Just because of some stupid DMIN. 2013 rubbish.

[Hammy]

Doesn't look now, nor did it last night, that it had a well defined circulation.

[hurricanes1234]

Imagine that. This is in very good conditions, yet it still won't develop. That alone tells you the kind of scheme the 2013 season is. 31°C SSTs? Moist air? Moderate wind shear? Yet it STILL would fail to develop? Daniel from last year became a Category 3 hurricane while over 26°C waters. This invest has SSTs at least 4 degrees Celsius higher, yet it still can't get its act together. And it's not to say that the air is extremely dry. It's moist enough to support a TC. I am not sure about wind shear, but the last time I checked, nothing was mentioned about it being high. I think it's about time now that I throw in the towel on this season, since every system now since Narda has been doing this. Absolutely stunning.

[zeehag]

mebbe it is my guardian angels........

would aliens be a better answer?

[hurricanes1234]

No, 'guardian angels' is quite fine. As for 94E, I don't think it has much more time left, it's deteriorating for unknown reasons. Just the story of 2013, storms and invests find favourable conditions, yet they make no use of it, or they are in hostile conditions and cannot intensify. That is why, I would reiterate, Henriette was the only storm able to squeeze in Category 2 status.

[hurricanes1234]

I think it's time we declare this a bust. In my opinion, I would put the chances at near 0%. TCFA was even cancelled.

WTPN21 PHNC 102130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092121Z OCT 13//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1.
REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 092130). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 100.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.0W, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DISORGANIZED AND THE LOW LEVEL HAS UNRAVELED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE, LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. //

[cycloneye]

No change in the %.


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[South Texas Storms]

I think it looks better now than it did this morning. At least there is a lot of convection now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94E/flash-rgb-long.html

[hurricanes1234]

Still don't see much development. Be careful, because 2013 has a habit of tricking people into believing that systems are organising. This may or may not be one of those hoaxes. (I think it may).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanes1234]

2013 EPAC Season is largely incapable of producing anything stronger than dried out storms.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanes1234]

Likely the start of a permanent downward trend for this busted invest.

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

And the models forecasted a hurricane out of this disorganised mess. Didn't even make it to TS. Yes there is still potential, but this doesn't look like it's going anywhere, so I would strongly assume it's another EPAC fail to get things going. Maybe this could develop into a weak TS or something, but it will likely be short-lived and add nothing to the ACE. Very very boring indeed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE YESTERDAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.