BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[ozonepete]

Spectacular

http://i.imgur.com/AgNZuX5.jpg

Yeah, beautifully constructed storm. And it fits the BoB like a glove.

[HURAKAN]

what's the link to that image? Looks beautiful

[ozonepete]

supercane, do you have the source and date/time for that? Great image.

[supercane4867]

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/internat ... hotos.html with some photoshop work

[HURAKAN]

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/international-satellite_photos.html with some photoshop work

Thanks, great site!

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE INTENSE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC EYE AS
IT CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, BEFORE TAU 36. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER LANDFALL, TC
PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. //
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

The last cyclone of hurricane intensity to hit India was Cyclone Thane in December 2011.



However, the last cyclone of Category 2 intensity or higher to hit India was the 1999 Orissa* Cyclone (5B).



*As of November 2011, Orissa is now known as Odisha.

[stormkite]

Off topic refer to above post. HUMMMMMMMMMM

1999 Odisha cyclone



The 1999 Odisha cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradwip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971. The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area.

A tropical depression formed over the Malay Peninsula on October 25. It moved to the northwest and became a tropical storm on October 26. It continued to strengthen into a cyclone on October 27. On October 28, it became a severe cyclone with a peak of 190 mph (305 km/h) winds. It hit India the next day as a 155 mph (250 km/h) cyclone. It caused the deaths of 15,000 people, and heavy to extreme damage in its path of destruction.

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track up to a Category 5!!!

02B PHAILIN 131011 1200 16.7N 87.7E IO 140 918

[wxman57]

IMD is predicting only a 3 ft surge from Phailin. Seems a little low. Here's a link to the image. Give it about 5 minutes to load, as their website appears to be connected to a 300 baud modem.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/surge.jpg

[gatorcane]

This is one impressive system! Major hurricanes are still possible!

[Sanibel]

We know which side of the world is favorable this year.

[supercane4867]

I wish IMD would upgrade Phailin to Super Cyclonic Storm status, but it's the IMD

[hurricanes1234]

Very amazing cyclone. Cyclone Phailin...

[mrbagyo]

let's see if it can pull a Gay-ish intensification once over the Indian Ocean.

Phailin did. what an impressive storm...

[hurricanes1234]

Monstrously intense tropical cyclone - second strongest of 2013 so far - Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Winds: 1-min sustained 140 knots (~160 mph\260 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 918 mbar

I think this should set at least some type of record. Don't think there was any storm this intense in the Bay of Bengal since the 21st century began.

[supercane4867]

EWRC had completed and new eyewall contracting as the storm continue to intensify

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_02B/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif




Massive storm

[galaxy401]

Monstrously intense tropical cyclone - second strongest of 2013 so far - Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Winds: 1-min sustained 140 knots (~160 mph\260 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 918 mbar

Is that the IMD, JTWC, or Dvorak that has this intensity?

[supercane4867]

Monstrously intense tropical cyclone - second strongest of 2013 so far - Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Winds: 1-min sustained 140 knots (~160 mph\260 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 918 mbar

Is that the IMD, JTWC, or Dvorak that has this intensity?

That should be the offical intensity from JTWC

[hurricanes1234]

Monstrously intense tropical cyclone - second strongest of 2013 so far - Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Winds: 1-min sustained 140 knots (~160 mph\260 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 918 mbar

Is that the IMD, JTWC, or Dvorak that has this intensity?

JTWC.