Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 40% /50%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave will cause scattered showers today as it moves thru PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST TUE OCT 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN WATERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE REGION SO
FAR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A TROPICAL
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION...
INCLUDING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...TJSJ 08/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.02 INCHES WHILE THE LATEST GFS LAYERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGEST PWAT VALUES NEAR TO OR EXCEEDING TWO
INCHES AS LONG AS THE MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE TO INJECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES OF PWAT WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING INTERACT
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP
TO 800 MILLIBARS...AND THE PREVAILING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT...EXPECT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO BE STEER TOWARDS THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS AND THEREFORE AFFECT PARTS OF THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM TAFB AND SATELLITES PICTURES DEPICTED A
SLOW MOVING TROPICAL PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. THE BROAD FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT PASSING -SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE
BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. FEW-ISOLD TCU/CB OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MAX TOP 30-40K FT. UNTIL 08/12Z...SOME -SHRA MAY
AFFECT ERN PR VCNTY TJNR AND TJSJ AS WELL AS TISX/TIST WITH SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL070. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FCST AT
ALL TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS WITH A LIGHT SE L/LVL WIND. FM 08/17Z-08/21Z
INCR CLD COVER OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL DUE TO AFTN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY N CENTRAL AND NW PR. AS A RESULT EXPECT ISOLD TSRA AT OR VCNTY
TJMZ...TJBQ...ISOLD SHRA ALSO PSBL VCNTY TJSJ DURG AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS WITH A SMALL NE SWELL REACHING THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 40 20
STT 89 79 88 78 / 50 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE OCT 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED
BY A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING...SPREADING OVER AND
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEHIND ITS AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THAN TODAY. URBAN FLOODING
LIKELY.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA BEING ABSORBED BY A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A MORE TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PR...
RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS UNTIL 08/21Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME SEA/LAND BREEZE
VARIATIONS. SOME TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET BUT A SMALL NE
SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 20 20
STT 78 89 78 88 / 50 50 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE OCT 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED
BY A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING...SPREADING OVER AND
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEHIND ITS AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THAN TODAY. URBAN FLOODING
LIKELY.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA BEING ABSORBED BY A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A MORE TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PR...
RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS UNTIL 08/21Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME SEA/LAND BREEZE
VARIATIONS. SOME TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET BUT A SMALL NE
SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 20 20
STT 78 89 78 88 / 50 50 30 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable will prevail today in PR and VI as a Tropical Wave and upper trough linger nearby. Is the first time they mention 98L that may arrive in the Caribbean so lets continue to watch it.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL RE-JOIN THE FLOW OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF
IT ON FRIDAY WHILE A NARROW RIDGE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
BROADEN AND THEN MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT BUT BY LATE NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA IN TIME TO REINFORCE A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ADJOINING WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WITHDRAW FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL REFORM WEAKLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES NORTH. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCREASING IN STRENGTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
MOIST AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAKE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR BOTH
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AFTER TURNING EASTERLY
TONIGHT AND WILL RETURN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THEN. GFS AND THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY SHOW ONLY LIMITED AGREEMENT ON THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOGS
ITS PATH MOST OF THE TIME AND THEN SHUNTS IT TO THE NORTHEAST JUST
BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS
SHOWS THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL
AREA ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH PATH AND TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN THIS LOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...OTHERWISE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 09/16Z. AT THIS TIME SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LAND AND MOVE NEAR AND ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ...AND POSSIBLY IN
THE VICINITY OF TJPS CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO END BY 09/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
SHIFT FROM SSE TO SE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET SEAS WILL SEE SOME NORTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 40 20 40 30
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[msbee]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Bay of Bengal Storm Could be Trouble for India
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013 +38

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. However, a few members of the European model's ensembles of forecasts do show 98L potentially impacting the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week.

[cycloneye]

No change in the % at 2 PM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N27W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SPIRAL RAINBANDS ARE NOTICEABLE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NNW OF THE AREA WILL MERGE WITH A
TROUGH OVR THE ERN U.S THU NIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTERNOONS EXPECTED OVR WRN PR THU-FRI UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN TUE AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST UNDER
PRESSURE FROM TROF TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE...COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PR THROUGH AT LEAST 08/22Z.
THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT
BLO FL100. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THRU THU BUILDING TO 5-6 FT THU NIGHT THRU
SAT IN NE SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 40 40 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST WED OCT 9 2013

.UPDATE...ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIO CULEBRINAS AT MARGARITAS DAM WENT
OUT OF ITS BANKS...WHERE A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED DUE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AS 10 PM
AST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFECTED
ALSO SAINT JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. UNSTELLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILLCONTINUE TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS WERE MADE TO ADJUST FORECAST WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT BLO FL100.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 3 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 87 / 50 50 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another variable weather day is expected in PR and VI as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU OCT 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO CUT-
OFF LOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND CUTS-
OFF JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEXT THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THIS RIDGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE
MID ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO TODAY. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND MORE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED OVER AND AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE MIMIC SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE DRY SLOT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS YESTERDAY IS NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS NOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.
IT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD CAUSE AN EARLY CLEAR-OFF TO CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE IS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND AND
WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. ON SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT MAXIMUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
LIKELY TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NONE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AFTER 10/1530Z FOR TJMZ
THEN TJBQ. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT BLO FL100. GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A NORTHEAST SWELL MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. SEAS GRADUALLY RETURN TO 4 FEET OR LESS BY MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 50 30 40 10
STT 88 77 87 79 / 50 50 20 30

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA LIES BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
ONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND HOLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST CIMMS/MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
MAINTAINED THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS ALL DAY.
DAYTIME HEATING...MOUNTAIN LIFT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE
COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. CELLS TRAINING OVER THESE AREAS HAVE
ALLOWED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA... VIEQUES
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SYNOPTIC MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE JUST
NNE OF THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PWAT MINIMA ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 875 MB. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. BASICALLY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA ERN THIRD OF PR TONIGHT AND USVI POSSIBLY
AFFECTING JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS THRU 12Z FRI WITH MVFR CIGS. SCT
TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AFT 16Z POSSIBLY AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTHEAST
SWELLS. THE PEAK OF THE SWELLS WILL FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 76 88 / 40 40 0 20
STT 79 90 79 89 / 70 70 0 20

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO still at 50%/50%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS LOW COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N33W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS THE FOCAL POINT OF A
BROADER MONSOONAL GYRE WITH INFLUENCE FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 29W-
43W. THE GYRE CONTINUES TO LIE BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N25W
PROVIDING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 29W-41W...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 28W-41W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail this weekend in PR and VI with only the usual afternoon showers in interior PR. We continue to watch 98L just in case it reaches the islands as a Depression or Storm.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
SATURDAY AND BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND CUT OFF NORTH OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK AND MOVE OVER
HISPANIOLA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WILL
PROMOTE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE MIMIC PRODUCT REVEALS
A LOCAL MOISTURE MAXIMUM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GENERATE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO...BUT CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH A MINIMUM NO LATER THAN 12/12Z.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE LOCAL OUTER WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OR EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ALSO MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY SO
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. LESS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THEN BUT WILL STILL FAVOR
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND THE LOWER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REINFORCE THIS
TREND. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO
DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER GOOD BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. BANDS OF DRIER AIR AND POCKETS
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PULLS DOWN OVER THE AREA AND A TROPICAL WAVE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM OR DEPRESSION MOVE ACROSS OR AT
LEAST GRAZE THE AREA EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AFTER 11/16Z FOR TJMZ THEN TJBQ UNTIL
AROUND 11/23Z. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT WILL
PREVAIL BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...FOUR FOOT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WAS DETECTED AT BUOY 41043
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY AND RETURN TO
PREVIOUS LEVELS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 91 77 / 40 10 10 20
STT 89 78 88 79 / 20 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[msbee]

The Caribbean and S.A. need to pay SERIOUS attention to this report

http://news.caribseek.com/index.php/wor ... ate-change

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
THE REST OF TODAY. AS A RESULT...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED DRY
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAS COMBINED
WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. THIS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FAVOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PR IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...
WE DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY STRONG/INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TIMING MAY CHANGE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...P6SM SKC TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES XCPT LEEWARD
TERMINALS. P6SM BKN040 JSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS
AFTER 12/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTHEAST
SWELLS. NE SWELLS WILL PEAK TONIGHT. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 89 / 0 20 30 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 10 20 30 20