BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
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cycloneye
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
Oh boy. JTWC landfall around 140- 145kts.
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wxman57
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
Using the latest OSCAT pass, I measured the size of the 35kt wind field at about twice that on the latest JTWC advisory (180nm vs. 90nm).
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
wxman57 wrote:New IMD forecast is out. They estimate Dvorak of 6.0 and 105 kts. From what I've heard, they don't think the standard Dvorak estimates apply to the BoB. Looks closer to 7.5 to me (150 kts).
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf
Because a TC at 90 east behaves much differently then one at 120 east.
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Ehm... is this not a bit... strange?
"The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted wind speeds of 210-220 km/hr at the time of landfall, but resisted upgrading tropical storm Phailin from a 'Very Severe Cyclone' to a 'Super Cyclone'."
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/phail ... e/1181386/
"The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted wind speeds of 210-220 km/hr at the time of landfall, but resisted upgrading tropical storm Phailin from a 'Very Severe Cyclone' to a 'Super Cyclone'."
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/phail ... e/1181386/
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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RL3AO wrote:Surge to 3 meters? Thats worse than the low wind forecast IMO.
With the direction and the angle of the coast it will be bad.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
another eyewall replacement is starting. But likely has started too late
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
it's very rare to have a category 5 in the BOB so i am quite surprised...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jaguarjace
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
WOW!
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
just the 2nd category 5 this year ...
Super Typhoon Usagi...
Cyclone Phailin...
Super Typhoon Usagi...
Cyclone Phailin...
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supercane4867
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
jaguarjace wrote:WOW!
http://imageshack.us/a/img268/3571/ryr.gif
The eye is warming and expanding, may get to WMG status yields a DT of 7.5 just before landfall
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hurricanes1234
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)
This is truly a stunning tropical cyclone! Never thought I would even see a fully fledged Category 5 in the Bay of Bengal, this is almost the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in November. As far as its 918 mbar pressure, that alone is rarely achieved even in the WPAC, so far less for how rare it is in one of the least active basins on Earth. Seems almost unrealistic.
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