ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%/50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hammy]

i see i want to site i not sure if error or their going issue formation alert

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=10&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=98L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/ATL/24W.NARI/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi

I'm not sure where to find the text for the alert though.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track has pressure down and winds up.

AL, 98, 2013101118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 379W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[gatorcane]

This system, unlike the rest of the systems out in the MDR this season is not having a problem with mid-level dry air. This time it looks like the shear monster that could kill it. Shear is not unexpected out there where 98L is at this time of year.

[hurricanes1234]

Either way, if this does form, it likely won't become anything much. The story of 2013 is ongoing, with hostile conditions literally everywhere you can possibly look.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

It looks like it's pretty close to being a depression. There is a small area of divergence and weak shear that the system seems to have found which is allowing convection to build rapidly.

[wxman57]

I think it lacks a circulation. Shear is still not light in the area. Maybe a 20 or 30% chance of becoming a TD or sheared TS. Convection will probably stay north of the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Not bad for 2013...you can see the SW shear hitting it, especially the NW side of the system, but certainly making a run at development. Actually pretty darn good for mid October as the Cape Verde season usually ends weeks ago.

[wxman57]

I think we might not get to my predicted 18/8/5 ...

Another year of very stable air in the tropics:

[blp]

I think we might not get to my predicted 18/8/5 ...

Another year of very stable air in the tropics:
[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif[]

So do you think we can close the door on this season or do you think we might get something later in the month in the W. Carribean. I am looking to the MJO for help but I am not optimistic.

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers...


11/1745 UTC 10.9N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1145 UTC 11.3N 36.7W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

[hurricanes1234]

I think we might not get to my predicted 18/8/5 ...

Another year of very stable air in the tropics:
[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif[]

So do you think we can close the door on this season or do you think we might get something later in the month in the W. Carribean. I am looking to the MJO for help but I am not optimistic.

I am personally closing the door on this season. Everything this year has turned out to be only speculation, very little of it became reality.

[Hammy]

I wouldn't close the door on anything yet, using 1994 as an example; the season was at 5/1/0 at this point. and had two hurricanes in November.

[cycloneye]

I saved this image for all to see how 98L is fighting hard the shear but still is hanging there. The obituary has been written but mother nature does it's thing.

[cycloneye]

60%/60%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion on 98L...http://goo.gl/uPWFsG


Synopsis

98L strengthening steadily, and is fighting shear. IMO, 60/50


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
This post in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Doesn't look that bad. In my post earlier, I meant that it might form, but not last long.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 955 NM W-SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
12N38W. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W TO W-NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE CENTER WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers.

11/2345 UTC 10.7N 40.0W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1745 UTC 10.9N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L