BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[supercane4867]

Cat 5 landfall seems unlikely

TXIO24 KNES 120252
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 17.8N

D. 86.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2154Z 17.2N 86.6E SSMI


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

the eye isn't as clear as before...i think it's weakening slightly...

[summersquall]

[euro6208]

Cat 5 landfall seems unlikely

TXIO24 KNES 120252
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 17.8N

D. 86.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2154Z 17.2N 86.6E SSMI


...RAMIREZ

the eye isn't as clear as before and cloud tops have significantly weaken...maybe a strong category 4 landfall in a few hours...

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC
WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A
112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN
RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND THIS STR, MAKING LANDFALL
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ERC MAY HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 12, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LAND
INTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAPID EROSION AFTER
LANDFALL, LEADING TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

it still looks quite good on meteosat. MTSAT is useless at this point as it is at the western edge of its range.

That said, the EWRC is starting. Don't expect it to do much though as the outer eyewall will be onshore soon

[ozonepete]

it still looks quite good on meteosat. MTSAT is useless at this point as it is at the western edge of its range.

That said, the EWRC is starting. Don't expect it to do much though as the outer eyewall will be onshore soon

Well said, Alyono. Here's an excerpt from the latest JTWC discussion:

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC WALL OF DEEP ONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A 112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

[stormkite]

Noaa has it at.

2013OCT12 070000 7.0 919.1 140.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -22.56 -73.03 EYE 16

[euro6208]

02B PHAILIN 131012 0600 18.0N 85.8E IO 130 926

Weakens to a category 4 with 130 knots winds...

[HurricaneBill]

Does anybody know if this will be making landfall at high tide or low tide?

[beoumont]

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS . MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET.

"Only" 56 foot waves?

[euro6208]

eye continues to be less distinct...weakening until landfall likely..

[stormkite]

http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/


Live tv coverage india

[jaguarjace]

FY-2D Full Disk loop.

Please note I created this enhanced satellite loop.

[Annie Oakley]

Ohhhhh........God be with them


Phailin on Course to Devastate India This Weekend
India is expected to suffer catastrophic impacts from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin on Saturday and Saturday night.

Destructive winds well over 160 kph (100 mph) and flooding rain of at least 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected across a wide area. There will be a crippling storm surge of 4-6 meters (14-20 feet), as well as wind gusts over 300 kph, near the landfall point of Phailin which is expected across northeastern India Saturday morning EDT.

Anyone residing in the states of Orissa or eastern Andhra Pradesh is encouraged to take proper precautions and prepare for life-threatening conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/18611884

[stormkite]

40 miles offshore http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/

[Crostorm]

sorry

[Airboy]

"Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, India"

Edit: Maybe a too early statement, some are still saying "1-2 hours".

[Iune]

"Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, India"

Edit: Maybe a too early statement, some are still saying "1-2 hours".

Based on the apparent motion, Phailin seems to be approaching a landfall near Gopalpur, Orissa (which was where the IMD was forecasting yesterday) rather than in Srikakulam. Anyway, I hope it doesn't make landfall in Srikakulum--my cousins live there

[beoumont]

Looks like eyewall recplacement might be completing just at it slows and comes ashore. Not good!