When will be our first major hurricane 2013?

[ConvergenceZone]

Just as I figured would happen, the tropical hose(if there ever was one) has appeared to have been turned off........ Major hurricane in 2013? Hmmm, try 2014.....



Disclaimer: this is only an education opinion, nothing more, nothing less. Consult your NHC for official forecasts....

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

lorenzo in october? c4?
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

No major hurricane this season. First time since 1994.

[otowntiger]

No major hurricane this season. First time since 1994.

I would agree (not that it matters since I'm no professional). It is a very interesting season in that it has been very uninteresting, right? This is one of the slowest seasons I can ever remember, and I've been watching the tropics since I was a kid in the 70's. I wonder if we will even have another hurricane the way things are going.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sure the insurance companies are loving it too.

No major hurricane this season. First time since 1994.

I would agree (not that it matters since I'm no professional). It is a very interesting season in that it has been very uninteresting, right? This is one of the slowest seasons I can ever remember, and I've been watching the tropics since I was a kid in the 70's. I wonder if we will even have another hurricane the way things are going.

[GrandCaymanDude]

If there is a major this season, it will likely be the classic October Western Caribbean hurricane.

It's been very quiet this season so far in Grand Cayman. October is climatologically active, with the last hurricane
to strongly affect this area being 2008's Paloma. My thinking is persistent shear over the W. Carib. should keep
development chances very low for the next week at least. It is still important to watch for any persistent areas
of storms that form in the West Caribbean. I remember Wilma started as just a depression and kaboom in 2 days
it was a 185 mph Category 5. Tropical Cyclones get very angry down here.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully this season will be a good example of stopping the "Wait until September" type comments that make me roll my eyes all the time. True that might apply sometimes, but the way some people say it, it's as if it's going to happen for sure, which is not true........ I think this year will stop those future comments dead in their tracks....

[chaser1]

If there is a major this season, it will likely be the classic October Western Caribbean hurricane.

It's been very quiet this season so far in Grand Cayman. October is climatologically active, with the last hurricane
to strongly affect this area being 2008's Paloma

Hey GrandCaymanDude, yeah I'd agree with you on the most likely place & time for a Cat 3 to "squeek in" would likely be the Central or W. Caribbean. Likely to be the only place in the entire basin without screaming upper level shear LOL.

Boy, I remember watching Paloma on satellite; It was one impressive storm! Had a pretty impressive pin point eye too if I remember.... From an "observer perspective", I would assume Grand Cayman would be a beautifully tropical place to watch something big come on in. Realize of course that nearly all there on the island would certainly NOT share in that enthusiasm (which I can more than understand!). I've never been there, but outside of the casinos I've heard that are there, would assume it to be a fairly "tropical-like" small island with tons of coconut palm lined beaches?

[hurricanes1234]

Considering the way this season has been, I'm not 100% sure about a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea just yet. As of now, I think the strongest storm would be in this area, however, it might make a run at Category 2 status, and if at all, briefly graze the surface of Category 3 status. If conditions improve significantly by October, I would then expect a more solid major hurricane, maybe a Category 4. However, my default forecast would be for them to remain pretty much the same, so if wind shear lets up a bit, I wouldn't be surprised to see a minimal major, but nothing above 115 or 120 mph. Of course, this is always subject to change.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Hopefully this season will be a good example of stopping the "Wait until September" type comments that make me roll my eyes all the time. True that might apply sometimes, but the way some people say it, it's as if it's going to happen for sure, which is not true........ I think this year will stop those future comments dead in their tracks....

I tend to agree with you with regard to "this" year, and to a degree with regard to those seasons that fall during moderate or strong El Nino years. There is no doubt that this year has almost created some sense of "tropical development hangover" given the much anticipated and ballyhoo'd expectations, ongoing vigil watching & waiting for the "next storm" to really start the season off. Hear we are in the end of Sept., and many here (myself included) still hold out that there will be at least a couple more and potentially still have a major hurricane. But even there, this is a far cry from most hear yelling "October is gonna bring home the bacon" LOL. There are statistical averages and there are persistent conditions And I'd guess that it's gonna take a decent MJO next month to be able to tip the scales in much of a favorable way.

That all said, I disagree in the broader sense because there are just too many years of statistical data that just seem to prove out the obvious acceleration of tropical storm activity during the peak of the season. Often times, the first named storm of the Atlantic season does not occur until late July. "Un-scientific" as it is to say prior to taking the time to analyze the years, but it is my recollection that many years that didn't really start up until mid to late July, contained some of the busier seasons, certainly contained many years where some "monsters" later developed, and of course a good amount of years where the Conus was directly impacted by later season forming storms.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully this season will be a good example of stopping the "Wait until September" type comments that make me roll my eyes all the time. True that might apply sometimes, but the way some people say it, it's as if it's going to happen for sure, which is not true........ I think this year will stop those future comments dead in their tracks....

I tend to agree with you with regard to "this" year, and to a degree with regard to those seasons that fall during moderate or strong El Nino years. There is no doubt that this year has almost created some sense of "tropical development hangover" given the much anticipated and ballyhoo'd expectations, ongoing vigil watching & waiting for the "next storm" to really start the season off. Hear we are in the end of Sept., and many here (myself included) still hold out that there will be at least a couple more and potentially still have a major hurricane. But even there, this is a far cry from most hear yelling "October is gonna bring home the bacon" LOL. There are statistical averages and there are persistent conditions And I'd guess that it's gonna take a decent MJO next month to be able to tip the scales in much of a favorable way.

That all said, I disagree in the broader sense because there are just too many years of statistical data that just seem to prove out the obvious acceleration of tropical storm activity during the peak of the season. Often times, the first named storm of the Atlantic season does not occur until late July. "Un-scientific" as it is to say prior to taking the time to analyze the years, but it is my recollection that many years that didn't really start up until mid to late July, contained some of the busier seasons, certainly contained many years where some "monsters" later developed, and of course a good amount of years where the Conus was directly impacted by later season forming storms.

I understand where you are coming from, and I agree. I just have a problem with people who say that just because a previous year got active in September, that it automatically meant it would happen this year as well, which is what's false........ I mean, we are in a down cycle as far as "intense" tropical activity is concerned. Look how long it's been since a Major hit the USA? That alone says something.....

[hurricanes1234]

The answer to this question seems as though it is becoming clearer and clearer — there just isn't going to be a major hurricane this year. Yes the MJO is forecast to propagate eastwards, but its effect on development this year has been minimal. I can't even remember when the MJO was in the EPAC, because it really didn't do much to affect the ACE. I would probably assume though, that it may have been active when the season was at its peak, around the time of Gil and Henriette. That's the only time I can recall two tropical cyclones active at the same time this year in that basin, probably Dalila and Erick as well. The EPAC season this time has been rather inactive.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gigabite]

Celestial Navigation Data for:
New Moon: 2013 Nov 3 at 12:40:00 UT

Object...GHA........Dec
MOON....14 05.8...S14 52.7

if (novNewMoon > S10)
{majorHurricane2013 = 0;}

[WeatherWiseGuy]

What is this about? I don't understand.

[Frank2]

Everyone uses one theory or another to determine if a hurricane will form - some say the new or full moon helps, but none have ever proved to be consistent...

If God says hurricane then there's a hurricane - that's it because even with tornado formation there are days when one is almost expected to form but doesn't, then there's the day that there's not much of a chance and we end up with an EF-5, so you (we) never know the day nor hour...

[BigB0882]

Everyone uses one theory or another to determine if a hurricane will form - some say the new or full moon helps, but none have ever proved to be consistent...

If God says hurricane then there's a hurricane - that's it because even with tornado formation there are days when one is almost expected to form but doesn't, then there's the day that there's not much of a chance and we end up with an EF-5, so you (we) never know the day nor hour...

Well that method is just as questionable, lol.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't know about that method above, but 2013 is drawing to a close. Won't be seeing any major out of 98L or 94E, that's for sure!

[gigabite]

Everyone uses one theory or another to determine if a hurricane will form - some say the new or full moon helps, but none have ever proved to be consistent...

If God says hurricane then there's a hurricane - that's it because even with tornado formation there are days when one is almost expected to form but doesn't, then there's the day that there's not much of a chance and we end up with an EF-5, so you (we) never know the day nor hour...

Well that method is just as questionable, lol.

The Methodology Is Better Than A Flip Of A Coin
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[gigabite]

Everyone uses one theory or another to determine if a hurricane will form - some say the new or full moon helps, but none have ever proved to be consistent...

There is a chaotic aspect of weather that causes inconsistencies in this process. I find launching a postulate into chaos from a stable mechanism more reasonable and easier to test than hopping from cloud to cloud.

Copernicus was a funny guy. He thought the sun was the center of the universe. My only point is that the wind blowing does not make the Moon move.

[hurricanes1234]

The method I was referring to was the theory being questionable. I was not referring to the one with God being questionable.